Earn with Nexo
1h Local elections could threaten Starmer’s leadership amid Reform UK gains
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
1h Local elections could threaten Starmer’s leadership amid Reform UK gains
▼ Starmer out timing
64% (was 67%, ▼3¢ in 1h)
NO ▲3¢
Starmer out timing
2 articles
Developing
64%
▼3¢
1h 6h UK local elections test Labour’s leadership amid two-party system breakdown
NO ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
Developing
14%
▼1¢
1h Hezbollah uses civilians as shields, complicating Israeli withdrawal plans
✓ 24h Israel orders southern Lebanon evacuations amid military operations
6h Saudi mediation in Lebanon stalls amid internal divisions, impacting Israel withdrawal
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
14%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
✓ 22h Iran issues one-month ultimatum to end US-Israeli conflict and blockade
NO ▲1¢
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
79%
▼1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 78% FLAT
2h Alphabet gains $420B in market cap, challenges Nvidia for top spot
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 3h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
✓ 43h Trump considers Iran peace proposal as Hormuz traffic halts
✓ 25h US to cut troop presence in Germany, signaling potential de-escalation with Iran
Likely YES
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
Developing
33%
3m Pentagon estimates Iran war cost at $25B, lawmakers contest figures
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
7m Spirit Airlines ceases operations after failed $500M bailout talks
✓ 33h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid soaring fuel costs
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
18%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 18% FLAT
16m Iran warns of control over Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
11 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
18m Drone strike near Zaporizhzhia plant heightens Russia-Ukraine tensions
39m Tehran on heightened alert amid US-Iran tensions, evacuation prep underway
1h US military aircraft surge towards Middle East amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 5 100% FLAT
20m Michael Saylor plans major Bitcoin purchase amid market optimism
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
2 articles
Developing
93%
▼0¢
40m Meta stock poised for $740 target by April 2026 after Q1 earnings beat
5h China blocks Meta’s $2B Manus AI deal amid US-China tech tensions
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
42m US blockade pressures Iran as oil storage nears capacity
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
2 articles
Developing
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Google stock price predictions 100% FLAT
47m KKR invests $10B in AI power plants, boosting US tech infrastructure
3h US Defense partners with tech giants for AI-first military initiative
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
3 articles
Developing
32%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 32% FLAT
✓ 21h Oman mediates US-Iran talks, boosting diplomatic meeting prospects
✓ 22h China defies US sanctions, orders firms to ignore Iranian oil trade restrictions
3h Kuwait halts oil exports amid Hormuz blockade, first since Gulf War
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
29%
▼0¢
1h Iran warns Strait of Hormuz could become “graveyard” for US amid rising tensions
✓ 22h US blockade strands 1.8M barrels of Iranian oil daily amid Hormuz tensions
4h Iranian supertanker evades US blockade, challenges enforcement
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 6% FLAT
✓ 21h Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates with renewed strikes, dimming ceasefire hopes
5h Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 2026 remains unlikely amid stalled diplomacy
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
2h BitMine’s 4.5M ETH stake strategy boosts confidence in $5,000 May target
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
3 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 3% FLAT
2h Iranian military official warns of likely conflict resumption with US
✓ 44h IRGC warns US as Iran consolidates power amid 2026 leadership uncertainty
✓ 35h Iran executes political prisoner amid international scrutiny on human rights
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price april 27-may 3 0% FLAT
2h BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF captures $1.7B in April inflows amid easing tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h OPEC+ boosts oil production amid US-Israel-Iran tensions
✓ 94h OPEC+ to raise oil output by 188,000 bpd amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
⚡ NATO and Russia military clash 5% FLAT
2h Drone threats in Baltic states, Finland raise NATO-Russia clash concerns
3h Ukraine drone strikes hit key Russian assets, ceasefire unlikely by 2026
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Q1 2026 US GDP growth confirmed, contradicting market predictions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 2 100% FLAT
4h Bitcoin faces potential downside after April surge, says CryptoQuant report
Likely NO
Russia NATO invasion
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
4h US troop withdrawal from Germany raises NATO deterrence concerns