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39m Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
39m Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
▲ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
31% (was 30%, ▲1¢ in 39m)
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement: 30% FLAT · US declaration of war on Iran: 8% FLAT
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
Developing
31%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 30% FLAT
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
39m 
YES ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
13%
▲1¢
41m IDF destroys Hezbollah-linked restaurant in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
3h Netanyahu posts destruction montage amid US ceasefire concerns
YES ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
Developing
31%
▲1¢
✓ 21h Iran formalizes Hormuz control, impacting US blockade and oil price markets
YES ▲1¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
2 articles
Developing
13%
▲1¢
1h Iran’s 30-day review may delay US-Iran meeting on April 22, 2026
✓ 21h Iran unveils three-stage plan to end conflict, focus on de-escalation
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
Developing
17%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 10% FLAT
✓ 81h Trump rejects Iranian proposal, complicating US-Iran nuclear talks
2h Trump administration approves $8.6B arms sales amid Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
Developing
17%
▲1¢
✓ 21h US missile shortage complicates Iran strategy, strains NATO commitments
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
31%
▲1¢
1h US redirects 49 vessels to enforce Iran blockade amid stalled talks
✓ 32h US maintains legal blockade of Strait of Hormuz, reducing war declaration likelihood
✓ 23h US blockade pressures Iran, oil trade hit; Trump unlikely to lift by May 31
Likely NO
Kash patel out timeline
1 article
Developing
32%
▼0¢
1h FBI’s Kash Patel announces major reforms, reducing odds of June departure
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
4 articles
Developing
13%
▼0¢
1h US-Iran tensions ease as AG backs Trump’s non-war statement
1h Israeli raids in Lebanon heighten tensions amid Iran airspace closure talks
✓ 62h Attack on bulk carrier near Iran heightens regional tensions
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
1h Iran includes nuclear file in new talks, potential shift in US uranium deal
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h US-Israel military action raises energy costs, impacts AI development
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 4% FLAT
2h Federal Reserve shifts focus to potential rate hikes amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
· 2h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 28% FLAT
2h US warns of sanctions for ships paying Iran tolls in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Trump considers reducing US troops in Germany, raising NATO concerns
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
2h Circle mints $750M USDC on Solana as capital shifts from Ethereum
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
✓ 33h Kashkari hints at possible Fed rate hikes amid Iran conflict inflation concerns
Likely NO
NATO and Russia military clash
1 article
· 3h ago
17%
▼0¢
3h US missile pullback weakens NATO deterrence amid Russia tensions
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
4 articles
Developing
16%
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
✓ 22m US intensifies sanctions on Iran, risking oil well shutdowns within days
31m China orders firms to defy US sanctions on Iranian oil refiners
2h WTI unlikely to hit $150 in May 2026 amid US exports, Hormuz easing
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
4 articles
Developing
28%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 29% FLAT
✓ 211m Iran confirms no nuclear talks underway amid US tensions
✓ 31h Iran proposes ending conflict, discussing Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
✓ 71h US responds to Iran’s peace proposal via Pakistan, reviewing underway
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
17%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
13m Iran reviews US response to 14-point plan amid nuclear talks
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
2 articles
Developing
81%
▼0¢
17m Powell to stay on Fed board amid Trump legal challenges
2h Justice Department drops investigation into Fed Chair Powell, easing Warsh’s path
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
6 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
27m Kashkari warns Iran war could limit Fed rate cuts amid inflation concerns
2h Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut outlook amid inflation concerns
2h Iran nuclear deal skepticism rises amid US blockade impact
Likely NO
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
1 article
Developing
0%
10m “The Devil Wears Prada 2” US box office falls short with $77M opening
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 242m Spirit Airlines faces potential shutdown by May 31 amid fuel crisis
✓ 22h Spirit Airlines shuts down after failed bailout, liquidation confirmed
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
93%
▼0¢
44m US Air Force cargo planes land in Beijing ahead of Trump-Xi summit
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
48m Middle East tensions raise concerns over Strait of Hormuz oil supply
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
56m White House leads reconciliation in Anthropic AI model dispute with Pentagon
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
✓ 21h Trump warns of further strikes on Iran amid fragile ceasefire
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Algeria reaffirms OPEC commitment as UAE plans exit by May 2026