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2h Iran’s 30-day review may delay US-Iran meeting on April 22, 2026
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
2h Iran’s 30-day review may delay US-Iran meeting on April 22, 2026
▲ Iran leadership status by end of 2026
19% (was 12%, ▲7¢ in 2h)
YES ▲7¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
19%
▲7¢
2h 
✓ 23h Iran unveils three-stage plan to end conflict, focus on de-escalation
YES ▲6¢
Iran airspace closure
7 articles
Developing
19%
▲6¢
26m US-Iran negotiations progress amid military tensions in Strait of Hormuz
37m Iran warns ships, redirects traffic amid Bab el-Mandeb tensions
45m Iran’s IRGC warns US of narrowing window amid regional tensions
YES ▲5¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
19%
▲5¢
43m IDF deploys Iron Drone Raider in Lebanon amid Hezbollah drone threat
2h IDF destroys Hezbollah-linked restaurant in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
YES ▲5¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
33%
▲5¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
1h Iran reviews US response to 14-point plan amid nuclear talks
YES ▲5¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
33%
▲5¢
✓ 22h US missile shortage complicates Iran strategy, strains NATO commitments
YES ▲4¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 2h ago
34%
▲4¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 30% FLAT
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
2h Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲4¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 2h ago
34%
▲4¢
✓ 22h Iran formalizes Hormuz control, impacting US blockade and oil price markets
YES ▲3¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
34%
▲3¢
25m Iran introduces law to control Strait of Hormuz transit amid US blockade
2h US redirects 49 vessels to enforce Iran blockade amid stalled talks
YES ▲1¢
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
Developing
12%
▲1¢
36m OPEC+ to raise oil output by 188,000 barrels per day in June amid Iran conflict
YES ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
Developing
17%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
✓ 21h US intensifies sanctions on Iran, risking oil well shutdowns within days
1h China orders firms to defy US sanctions on Iranian oil refiners
3h WTI unlikely to hit $150 in May 2026 amid US exports, Hormuz easing
YES ▲1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
3h Iran includes nuclear file in new talks, potential shift in US uranium deal
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
6m Spirit Airlines confirms shutdown, refund processing after failed $500M bailout
✓ 22h Spirit Airlines faces potential shutdown by May 31 amid fuel crisis
✓ 23h Spirit Airlines shuts down after failed bailout, liquidation confirmed
Likely NO
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
1 article
Developing
0%
1h “The Devil Wears Prada 2” US box office falls short with $77M opening
Likely NO
AI model leader by end of may
1 article
Developing
19%
▼0¢
11m Ukraine deploys UGVs, reducing Russia’s chances in Kostyantynivka
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
24m US-Israeli-Arab alliance weakens as Iran strengthens strategic position
✓ 22h Trump warns of further strikes on Iran amid fragile ceasefire
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
5 articles
Developing
33%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 33% FLAT
✓ 230m Iran enforces maritime red lines, raising Strait of Hormuz tensions
✓ 246m US confirms talks with Iran amid Operation Epic Fury: CNN
✓ 21h Iran confirms no nuclear talks underway amid US tensions
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
3 articles
Developing
17%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Trump rejects Iran’s proposal, US-Iran nuclear deal faces setbacks
✓ 82h Trump rejects Iranian proposal, complicating US-Iran nuclear talks
3h Trump administration approves $8.6B arms sales amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
1h US Secretary of War endorses Bitcoin as strategic tool in national security
1h Nation-state adoption boosts Bitcoin’s institutional confidence, says Adam Back
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Iran conflict spikes Europe’s energy costs by €500M daily amid ECB rate cut talk
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h Powell to stay on Fed board amid Trump legal challenges
3h Justice Department drops investigation into Fed Chair Powell, easing Warsh’s path
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
1h Kashkari warns Iran war could limit Fed rate cuts amid inflation concerns
3h Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut outlook amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 2h ago
93%
▼0¢
2h US Air Force cargo planes land in Beijing ahead of Trump-Xi summit
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Middle East tensions raise concerns over Strait of Hormuz oil supply
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h White House leads reconciliation in Anthropic AI model dispute with Pentagon
Likely NO
Kash patel out timeline
1 article
· 3h ago
32%
▼0¢
3h FBI’s Kash Patel announces major reforms, reducing odds of June departure
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h US-Israel military action raises energy costs, impacts AI development
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 3h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 4% FLAT
3h Federal Reserve shifts focus to potential rate hikes amid inflation concerns