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2h Iran reviews US response to 14-point plan amid nuclear talks
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
2h Iran reviews US response to 14-point plan amid nuclear talks
▲ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
33% (was 28%, ▲5¢ in 2h)
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal: 16% FLAT
YES ▲5¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
33%
▲5¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
2h 
YES ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 3h ago
32%
▲2¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 30% FLAT
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
3h Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
5 articles
Developing
19%
▲1¢
26m Iran deploys oil tankers amid US blockade, raising regional tensions
1h US-Iran negotiations progress amid military tensions in Strait of Hormuz
1h Iran warns ships, redirects traffic amid Bab el-Mandeb tensions
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
4%
▲1¢
1h US-Israeli-Arab alliance weakens as Iran strengthens strategic position
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
4m OPEC+ boosts oil production, seen as symbolic amid surplus concerns
28m Russia’s oil revenues surge as China, India boost imports amid Hormuz disruptions
✓ 21h OPEC+ to raise oil output by 188,000 barrels per day in June amid Iran conflict
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
37m Russia aids Iran amid US tensions, complicating US military plans
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
✓ 242m Bitcoin hits new all-time high of $79,000 amid US-Iran diplomatic easing
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
4 articles
Developing
33%
▼0¢
45m US-Iran diplomatic meeting proposed amid ongoing tensions
✓ 21h Iran enforces maritime red lines, raising Strait of Hormuz tensions
✓ 21h US confirms talks with Iran amid Operation Epic Fury: CNN
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
47m BlackRock’s European Bitcoin ETP surpasses $1.1B in assets, signals institutional interest
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
6%
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
just now Ukraine strikes Russian oil tankers, escalating Black Sea conflict
33m Drone attacks on Plesetsk Cosmodrome delay Russian space launches
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
7m Trump rejects Iran peace offer, hints at possible airstrikes amid tensions
✓ 22h US intensifies sanctions on Iran, risking oil well shutdowns within days
3h China orders firms to defy US sanctions on Iranian oil refiners
Likely NO
Trump speaking engagements in may
1 article
Developing
17%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
✓ 59m Trump announces ‘Project Freedom’ amid US-Iran tensions in Middle East
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
32%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
10m Trump announces “Project Freedom” to escort ships from Strait of Hormuz
✓ 416m Trump hints at easing Strait of Hormuz blockade amid positive Iran talks
✓ 31h Iran introduces law to control Strait of Hormuz transit amid US blockade
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
15m Hezbollah drone tactics challenge Israel’s electronic warfare edge
1h IDF deploys Iron Drone Raider in Lebanon amid Hezbollah drone threat
3h IDF destroys Hezbollah-linked restaurant in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Balance of power in 2026 midterms
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
✓ 221m ActBlue investigations may impact Democratic fundraising ahead of 2026 midterms
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
Developing
78%
▼0¢
31m Apple projects 14-17% revenue growth despite supply issues
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
35m CryptoQuant warns Bitcoin rally lacks support, signals potential decline
3h Middle East tensions raise concerns over Strait of Hormuz oil supply
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
✓ 249m Iran war threatens inflation, Fed warns of no rate cuts in 2026
3h Kashkari warns Iran war could limit Fed rate cuts amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
59m AI drives 1.5% of US GDP growth in Q1 2026, boosting economic outlook
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
1h Trump approves $8.6B arms sales amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Bitcoin miners pivot to AI, impacting $115K price target for May 2026
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Spirit Airlines confirms shutdown, refund processing after failed $500M bailout
✓ 23h Spirit Airlines faces potential shutdown by May 31 amid fuel crisis
Likely NO
AI model leader by end of may
1 article
Developing
19%
▼0¢
1h Ukraine deploys UGVs, reducing Russia’s chances in Kostyantynivka
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
· 2h ago
17%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Trump rejects Iran’s proposal, US-Iran nuclear deal faces setbacks
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
2h US Secretary of War endorses Bitcoin as strategic tool in national security
2h Nation-state adoption boosts Bitcoin’s institutional confidence, says Adam Back
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Iran conflict spikes Europe’s energy costs by €500M daily amid ECB rate cut talk
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
2h Powell to stay on Fed board amid Trump legal challenges
Likely NO
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
2 articles
Developing
0%
✓ 255m “The Devil Wears Prada 2” projected to open with $230M globally
2h “The Devil Wears Prada 2” US box office falls short with $77M opening
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 3h ago
93%
▼0¢
3h US Air Force cargo planes land in Beijing ahead of Trump-Xi summit