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✓ 51h US plans to guide ships through Hormuz, Brent oil drops 2.4%
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 51h US plans to guide ships through Hormuz, Brent oil drops 2.4%
▲ Bab el-mandeb strait closure
37% (was 32%, ▲5¢ in 1h)
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement: 32% FLAT
YES ▲5¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
Developing
37%
▲5¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 32% FLAT
✓ 51h 
NO ▲1¢
Trump speaking engagements in may
1 article
· 2h ago
16%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
✓ 122h Trump announces ‘Project Freedom’ amid US-Iran tensions in Middle East
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
4 articles
Developing
12%
▼0¢
5m UAE exits OPEC amid Strait of Hormuz crisis, impacting oil prices
1h Iran conflict escalates, oil prices expected to hit $90 by June end
2h OPEC+ boosts oil production, seen as symbolic amid surplus concerns
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
51m Israel intensifies military operations in Lebanon, delaying withdrawal plans
2h Hezbollah drone tactics challenge Israel’s electronic warfare edge
Likely NO
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
53m Powell plans to stay as Fed governor post-chair term, reducing early exit odds
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap predictions
2 articles
Developing
79%
▼0¢
57m Nvidia’s AI market share in China drops amid US export controls
3h Apple projects 14-17% revenue growth despite supply issues
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
1h Iran conflict threatens Asia’s food security amid fertilizer supply disruptions
1h Iran declares no limit on uranium enrichment under IAEA supervision
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
Developing
37%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 36% FLAT
✓ 41h US clarifies “Project Freedom” as coordination effort, not Hormuz escort mission
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 5
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price april 27-may 3 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 3 0% FLAT
1h Bitcoin surges past $79K amid US-Iran geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
10%
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
2m Iran demands US troop withdrawal, sanctions relief in 14-point plan
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
5 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
8m Tehran protests continue as military presence grows in UAE amid Iran tensions
1h Israel’s AI unit boosts air force in Iran conflict, raises regional tensions
2h Iran’s clerical divisions highlight airspace closure risk amid US-Israel tensions
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
12m Pakistani Muslims march in mourning for slain Iranian leader Khamenei
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
20m Kashkari: Iran conflict complicates Fed rate guidance amid inflation risks
42m White House mulls boosting US oil output amid Iran conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
✓ 222m Bitcoin miners sell 32K BTC in Q1 2026 amid market shifts, hashrate dips
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
17%
▼0¢
31m Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid Strait of Hormuz fuel crisis
✓ 21h Spirit Airlines ceases operations, enters liquidation after blocked JetBlue merger
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
34m US naval blockade in Strait of Hormuz strains Iran’s economy, $435M daily impact
1h Iran cracks down on Starlink users, man beaten to death for device possession
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
2 articles
Developing
37%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 36% FLAT
✓ 436m US launches Operation Freedom to restore Strait of Hormuz navigation
2h Bulk carrier attacked near Strait of Hormuz, impacting traffic normalization odds
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
39m Zelensky warns of unusual military activity on Belarus border
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
37%
▼0¢
1h 20,000 sailors stranded amid US-Iran blockade in Strait of Hormuz
✓ 102h Trump orders US Navy to escort ships through Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
2h Trump announces “Project Freedom” to escort ships from Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Middle East conflict fuels ECB rate cut speculation amid recession fears
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 3 100% FLAT
1h Ethereum price hits $2,350 amid US-Iran tensions, institutional inflows rise
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
Developing
93%
▼0¢
⚡ US GDP growth Q1 2026 100% FLAT
1h Meta Platforms set to hit $740 by April 2026 amid AI-driven growth
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Bitcoin rises 15% after Delphi Digital coordination shift
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
33%
▼0¢
✓ 31h Iran warns ships must get approval to leave Persian Gulf amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
Developing
67%
▼0¢
1h UK Labour Party braces for worst local election results, Starmer under pressure
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h FCC scrutiny on Disney lowers odds of Kimmel’s firing by May 31
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h NYSE to enable tokenized securities trading with blockchain integration
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Israel signals escalation with Netanyahu’s security meeting amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
2h Attorney-General agrees to plea talks with Netanyahu defense team
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 3
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Bitcoin’s best month since April 2025 amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
2h Ukraine strikes Russian oil tankers, escalating Black Sea conflict
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
10%
▼0¢
✓ 32h Trump rejects Iran peace offer, hints at possible airstrikes amid tensions
Likely NO
Balance of power in 2026 midterms
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
✓ 22h ActBlue investigations may impact Democratic fundraising ahead of 2026 midterms