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✓ 53h US plans to guide ships through Hormuz, Brent oil drops 2.4%
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 53h US plans to guide ships through Hormuz, Brent oil drops 2.4%
▲ Bab el-mandeb strait closure
36% (was 32%, ▲4¢ in 3h)
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement: 32% FLAT
YES ▲4¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 3h ago
36%
▲4¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 32% FLAT
✓ 53h 
NO ▲1¢
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
Developing
36%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 36% FLAT
19m US envoy accuses Iran of illegal sea mines, escalating Hormuz tensions
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
36%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 38% FLAT
✓ 451m Trump announces naval mission in Hormuz; Iran warns of ceasefire violation
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
3 articles
Developing
36%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 38% FLAT
✓ 454m Tanker attack near Fujairah heightens Strait of Hormuz tensions
✓ 51h US launches Operation Freedom to restore Strait of Hormuz navigation
3h Bulk carrier attacked near Strait of Hormuz, impacting traffic normalization odds
NO ▲1¢
Crude oil price predictions by june
3 articles
Developing
11%
▼1¢
1h OPEC+ raises June output amid Strait of Hormuz closure, oil prices stay high
1h UAE exits OPEC amid Strait of Hormuz crisis, impacting oil prices
2h Iran conflict escalates, oil prices expected to hit $90 by June end
YES ▲1¢
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
27%
▲1¢
2h Powell plans to stay as Fed governor post-chair term, reducing early exit odds
NO ▲1¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
78%
▼1¢
2h Nvidia’s AI market share in China drops amid US export controls
NO ▲1¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
36%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 36% FLAT
✓ 52h US clarifies “Project Freedom” as coordination effort, not Hormuz escort mission
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
Developing
17%
▼0¢
5m US Navy uses AI to detect mines, expedite Strait of Hormuz traffic
1h Tehran protests continue as military presence grows in UAE amid Iran tensions
2h Israel’s AI unit boosts air force in Iran conflict, raises regional tensions
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
36%
▼0¢
9m Trump signals continued Hormuz blockade as strategic measure
2h 20,000 sailors stranded amid US-Iran blockade in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
14m Medvedev warns of nuclear apocalypse amid Russia-NATO tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
24m BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETP reaches $1.1B AUM, boosting institutional interest
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
Developing
73%
▼0¢
⚡ Meta platforms stock price predictions 100% FLAT
✓ 229m Morgan Stanley ups tech giants’ capex forecast to $805B for 2026
Likely NO
UAE and qatar diplomatic relations in 2026
1 article
Developing
17%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
35m UAE-Israel alliance raises diplomatic strain with Qatar, potential Iran airspace closure
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
41m US withdraws 5,000 troops from Germany amid NATO tensions
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
52m Treasury warns AI could escalate cyber threats to US financial systems
Likely NO
Russia NATO invasion
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ NATO and Russia military clash 4% FLAT
55m NATO starts “Amber Shock 26” drills in Poland amid Russia tensions
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h US guides ships from Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions, impacting Trump China visit
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 3 100% FLAT
1h Ethereum faces selling pressure as 72,000% surge in unstaking emerges
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
16%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
1h Iran demands US troop withdrawal, sanctions relief in 14-point plan
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
1h Pakistani Muslims march in mourning for slain Iranian leader Khamenei
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
✓ 31h Kashkari: Iran conflict complicates Fed rate guidance amid inflation risks
1h White House mulls boosting US oil output amid Iran conflict
Likely YES
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
Developing
32%
4m Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, oil supply disruption impacts Asia
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Bitcoin miners sell 32K BTC in Q1 2026 amid market shifts, hashrate dips
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
17%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid Strait of Hormuz fuel crisis
✓ 23h Spirit Airlines ceases operations, enters liquidation after blocked JetBlue merger
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
1h US naval blockade in Strait of Hormuz strains Iran’s economy, $435M daily impact
2h Iran cracks down on Starlink users, man beaten to death for device possession
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
1h Zelensky warns of unusual military activity on Belarus border
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Israel intensifies military operations in Lebanon, delaying withdrawal plans
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
· 2h ago
16%
▼0¢
2h Iran conflict threatens Asia’s food security amid fertilizer supply disruptions
2h Iran declares no limit on uranium enrichment under IAEA supervision
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 5
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price april 27-may 3 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 3 0% FLAT
2h Bitcoin surges past $79K amid US-Iran geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Middle East conflict fuels ECB rate cut speculation amid recession fears
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 3 100% FLAT
2h Ethereum price hits $2,350 amid US-Iran tensions, institutional inflows rise
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
73%
▼0¢
⚡ US GDP growth Q1 2026 100% FLAT
2h Meta Platforms set to hit $740 by April 2026 amid AI-driven growth
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Bitcoin rises 15% after Delphi Digital coordination shift
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 3h ago
33%
▼0¢
✓ 33h Iran warns ships must get approval to leave Persian Gulf amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 3h ago
67%
▼0¢
3h UK Labour Party braces for worst local election results, Starmer under pressure
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h FCC scrutiny on Disney lowers odds of Kimmel’s firing by May 31
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
3h NYSE to enable tokenized securities trading with blockchain integration
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
3h Israel signals escalation with Netanyahu’s security meeting amid Iran tensions