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2h Iran vows retaliation if US resumes attacks amid ceasefire tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
2h Iran vows retaliation if US resumes attacks amid ceasefire tensions
▼ Iran leadership status by end of 2026
14% (was 18%, ▼4¢ in 2h)
⚡ Iran airspace closure: 18% FLAT
NO ▲4¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
14%
▼4¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 18% FLAT
2h 
NO ▲3¢
UAE and qatar diplomatic relations in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
14%
▼3¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
3h UAE-Israel alliance raises diplomatic strain with Qatar, potential Iran airspace closure
NO ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
Developing
14%
▼1¢
21m Dubai airport sees 66% passenger drop amid Iran conflict disruptions
2h US Navy uses AI to detect mines, expedite Strait of Hormuz traffic
4h Tehran protests continue as military presence grows in UAE amid Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
· 3h ago
36%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 36% FLAT
3h US envoy accuses Iran of illegal sea mines, escalating Hormuz tensions
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 3h ago
36%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 38% FLAT
✓ 43h Tanker attack near Fujairah heightens Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
11m Israeli military strikes Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
1h Trump’s rejection of Iran proposal impacts US-Iran diplomatic meeting outlook
3h Iran demands US troop withdrawal, sanctions relief in 14-point plan
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high predictions 3% FLAT
✓ 61h Bitcoin surges to $80,000 amid US-Iran tensions, first time since January
✓ 21h US naval blockade in Strait of Hormuz impacts Bitcoin market sentiment
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
36%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 36% FLAT
✓ 51h US Navy limits Hormuz escorts amid Iran tensions, impacting blockade outlook
✓ 73h Trump announces naval mission in Hormuz; Iran warns of ceasefire violation
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
36%
▼0¢
✓ 41h US Navy launches Project Freedom for safer Hormuz navigation amid blockade
2h Trump signals continued Hormuz blockade as strategic measure
Likely YES
Fed decision june and july
1 article
Developing
4%
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
4m BOJ intervenes in forex market amid US-Iran tensions, yen stabilizes
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
3 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
12m Bitcoin spot ETFs see $153.8M inflows, Ethereum outflows hit $82.4M
1h Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $490M amid short-term institutional caution
✓ 43h BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETP reaches $1.1B AUM, boosting institutional interest
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
Developing
73%
▼0¢
14m Index funds adjust rules as SpaceX IPO filing nears June 2026
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
16m China defies US sanctions, escalating tensions over Iran petrochemical sector
3h US guides ships from Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions, impacting Trump China visit
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 36% FLAT
25m Iranian lawmaker: US ship escort plan violates Hormuz ceasefire
54m Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed as Iran’s Supreme Leader amid Karachi support rally
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement 0% FLAT
✓ 245m Strategy pauses Bitcoin buys ahead of Q1 earnings amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 259m Anthropic nears $1.5B AI joint venture with Wall Street firms: WSJ
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high predictions
3 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 5 100% FLAT
✓ 41h Bitcoin hits $80,000, triggers $114M in short liquidations amid US-Iran tensions
1h Bitcoin surges past $80K, $104M in shorts liquidated amid US-Iran ceasefire
✓ 24h Bitcoin miners sell 32K BTC in Q1 2026 amid market shifts, hashrate dips
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Spirit Airlines faces shutdown by May 31 due to financial issues: The Hill
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 10% FLAT
1h CENTCOM briefing suggests increased US military action against Iran
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
4 articles
Developing
36%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 36% FLAT
✓ 31h Iran imposes selective Hormuz blockade amid US tensions
1h Tanker attack in Strait of Hormuz raises WTI crude oil price concerns
2h US to guide ships through Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h Russia intercepts nearly 270 Ukrainian drones amid escalating conflict
2h Ukrainian drone strike hits Moscow high-rise, impacting ceasefire market
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
2h Naftali Bennett announces candidacy for Israeli Prime Minister in 2026 election
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Brazil to unveil measures on household debt amid high Selic rate
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
2h Medvedev warns of nuclear apocalypse amid Russia-NATO tensions
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
73%
▼0¢
⚡ Meta platforms stock price predictions 100% FLAT
✓ 23h Morgan Stanley ups tech giants’ capex forecast to $805B for 2026
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
3h US withdraws 5,000 troops from Germany amid NATO tensions
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Treasury warns AI could escalate cyber threats to US financial systems
Likely NO
Russia NATO invasion
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ NATO and Russia military clash 4% FLAT
3h NATO starts “Amber Shock 26” drills in Poland amid Russia tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
· 3h ago
12%
▼0¢
3h OPEC+ raises June output amid Strait of Hormuz closure, oil prices stay high
4h UAE exits OPEC amid Strait of Hormuz crisis, impacting oil prices
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 3 100% FLAT
3h Ethereum faces selling pressure as 72,000% surge in unstaking emerges
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
4h Pakistani Muslims march in mourning for slain Iranian leader Khamenei
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
✓ 34h Kashkari: Iran conflict complicates Fed rate guidance amid inflation risks