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4h UAE exits OPEC, strengthens US-Israel ties amid Iran tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
4h UAE exits OPEC, strengthens US-Israel ties amid Iran tensions
▼ Bab el-mandeb strait closure
29% (was 35%, ▼6¢ in 4h)
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement: 34% FLAT
NO ▲6¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
3 articles
· 4h ago
29%
▼6¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 34% FLAT
4h ✓ 35h Macron urges US-Iran coordination as Trump orders military guidance in Hormuz
6h Iran’s Hormuz closure disrupts global supply chains, SKW boosts fertilizer output
YES ▲2¢
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▲2¢
✓ 23h UAE exits OPEC, raising oil supply concerns amid regional tensions
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
1h Barclays predicts no Fed rate cuts until 2027 amid inflation, oil price concerns
5h Iran conflict drives oil prices to four-year highs, pressures Trump’s approval
NO ▲1¢
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
92%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 92% FLAT
1h China defies US sanctions on Iranian oil ahead of Xi-Trump summit
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
· 2h ago
23%
▲1¢
2h CENTCOM denies Iran missile strike claim amid heightened US-Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
2 articles
· 2h ago
23%
▼1¢
2h Iran launches missiles near Persian Gulf amid rising tensions with US
5h US evacuates 22 crew from Iranian ship amid Hormuz blockade tensions
YES ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
11%
▲1¢
3h Trump skeptical of Iran’s peace proposal amid nuclear impasse
YES ▲1¢
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▲1¢
4h Iran publishes new map asserting control over Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
ECB interest rates april 2026
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▼1¢
4h ECB unlikely to cut rates in April 2026 amid inflation, supply chain pressures
5h Eurozone PMI steady, inflation concerns may limit ECB rate cuts in 2026
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
29%
▼0¢
8m US Navy aids commercial shipping as vessels transit Strait of Hormuz
✓ 32h UAE condemns Iranian drone attack on ADNOC vessel in Strait of Hormuz
4h US intercepts 39 vessels as Hormuz blockade enforcement continues
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
17m Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates, impacting withdrawal prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 4 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
20m Iran missile strike heightens Bitcoin volatility amid geopolitical tensions
23m Strategy raises $82M for Bitcoin purchase amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
7 articles
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
27m Bitcoin surges past $80K amid US-Iran de-escalation, easing macro risks
1h Iran tensions push Brent crude to highest since March 2022 at $126.4
✓ 41h Iran blocks US warship entry, Brent crude jumps 5% amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
✓ 245m Strategy pauses Bitcoin purchase, plans to resume next week
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
4 articles
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 99% FLAT
1h Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ boosts oil prices amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
2h Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports threaten European energy supplies
3h Machine gun fire reported near Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
1h NATO deterrence bolstered as German minister affirms strong defense posture
5h Trump threatens US withdrawal from NATO amid Iran conflict tensions
Likely NO
Tamil nadu legislative assembly election winner 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h BJP leads in West Bengal, TVK gains in Tamil Nadu, impacting AITC prospects
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 41h US alters engagement rules, escalating tensions in Strait of Hormuz
✓ 84h Iran threatens to attack US warships entering Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Melania Trump adviser urges advertiser boycott over Kimmel’s controversial joke
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
2h US deploys Merops drones amid rising tensions with Iran
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
33%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 33% FLAT
✓ 22h Trump considers military action against Iran if talks stall: Axios
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Bitmine stakes $508M in ETH, becomes largest corporate staker
✓ 25h Bitcoin finds support at ETF buyers’ average cost amid institutional inflows
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
3h Ethereum whales accumulate $322M in 96 hours, boosting market confidence
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h Hezbollah rejects direct talks with Israel, impacting Lebanon withdrawal outlook
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
4h Iran reviews US peace proposal aiming to halt ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
2 articles
· 4h ago
2%
▼0¢
4h Russian forces suffer first territorial loss in Ukraine since 2024: ISW
6h Ukraine drone strikes hit Russian oil facilities, showcasing military advances
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
1 article
· 5h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 4% FLAT
✓ 25h Kraken boosts US crypto derivatives with Bitnomial acquisition
Likely NO
NATO and Russia military clash
1 article
· 6h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
✓ 26h US troop withdrawal from Germany raises NATO-Russia tension concerns