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5h UAE exits OPEC, strengthens US-Israel ties amid Iran tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
5h UAE exits OPEC, strengthens US-Israel ties amid Iran tensions
▼ Bab el-mandeb strait closure
26% (was 35%, ▼9¢ in 5h)
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement: 34% FLAT
NO ▲9¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 5h ago
26%
▼9¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 34% FLAT
5h 
NO ▲6¢
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 2h ago
87%
▼6¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 92% FLAT
2h China defies US sanctions on Iranian oil ahead of Xi-Trump summit
YES ▲6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
· 3h ago
28%
▲6¢
3h CENTCOM denies Iran missile strike claim amid heightened US-Iran tensions
YES ▲4¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 4h ago
28%
▲4¢
4h Iran launches missiles near Persian Gulf amid rising tensions with US
YES ▲2¢
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
12%
▲2¢
4h Trump skeptical of Iran’s peace proposal amid nuclear impasse
NO ▲2¢
ECB interest rates april 2026
2 articles
· 5h ago
2%
▼2¢
5h ECB unlikely to cut rates in April 2026 amid inflation, supply chain pressures
6h Eurozone PMI steady, inflation concerns may limit ECB rate cuts in 2026
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
32m Treasury Secretary Bessent calls Iran conflict gas price surge a short-term blip
2h Barclays predicts no Fed rate cuts until 2027 amid inflation, oil price concerns
NO ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
Developing
2%
▼1¢
59m Powell to remain Fed governor post-chair term, stabilizing markets
YES ▲1¢
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 4h ago
35%
▲1¢
✓ 24h UAE exits OPEC, raising oil supply concerns amid regional tensions
YES ▲1¢
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 5h ago
8%
▲1¢
5h Iran publishes new map asserting control over Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 4 100% FLAT
✓ 29m BitMine Immersion boosts Ethereum holdings to over 4.2% of total supply
4h Bitmine stakes $508M in ETH, becomes largest corporate staker
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
5 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
✓ 217m IRGC confirms no commercial transit through Hormuz amid ongoing blockade
1h US Navy aids commercial shipping as vessels transit Strait of Hormuz
✓ 33h UAE condemns Iranian drone attack on ADNOC vessel in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
22m Pentagon AI deals exclude Anthropic, signaling shift in vendor strategy
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
9 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high predictions 3% FLAT
24m Bitcoin surges past $77K as institutional hedging signals caution
37m Iran tensions disrupt aluminum supply, strain automakers amid US tariffs
1h Bitcoin surges past $80K amid US-Iran de-escalation, easing macro risks
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
26m Russia launches record 6,583 drones at Ukraine in April, escalating conflict
3h US deploys Merops drones amid rising tensions with Iran
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Israel expands military presence in Lebanon, withdrawal less likely by June 2026
5h Hezbollah rejects direct talks with Israel, impacting Lebanon withdrawal outlook
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates, impacting withdrawal prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 4 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
1h Iran missile strike heightens Bitcoin volatility amid geopolitical tensions
1h Strategy raises $82M for Bitcoin purchase amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
✓ 21h Strategy pauses Bitcoin purchase, plans to resume next week
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
4 articles
· 2h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 99% FLAT
2h Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ boosts oil prices amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
3h Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports threaten European energy supplies
4h Machine gun fire reported near Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
2h NATO deterrence bolstered as German minister affirms strong defense posture
Likely NO
Tamil nadu legislative assembly election winner 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
2h BJP leads in West Bengal, TVK gains in Tamil Nadu, impacting AITC prospects
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 42h US alters engagement rules, escalating tensions in Strait of Hormuz
✓ 85h Iran threatens to attack US warships entering Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Melania Trump adviser urges advertiser boycott over Kimmel’s controversial joke
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 3h ago
33%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 33% FLAT
✓ 23h Trump considers military action against Iran if talks stall: Axios
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
4h Ethereum whales accumulate $322M in 96 hours, boosting market confidence
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
5h Iran reviews US peace proposal aiming to halt ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
· 5h ago
2%
▼0¢
5h Russian forces suffer first territorial loss in Ukraine since 2024: ISW