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4h CENTCOM denies Iran missile strike claim amid heightened US-Iran tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
4h CENTCOM denies Iran missile strike claim amid heightened US-Iran tensions
▲ US-Iran nuclear deal
39% (was 22%, ▲17¢ in 4h)
YES ▲15¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 5h ago
39%
▲15¢
5h Iran launches missiles near Persian Gulf amid rising tensions with US
NO ▲9¢
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 3h ago
84%
▼9¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 92% FLAT
3h China defies US sanctions on Iranian oil ahead of Xi-Trump summit
YES ▲6¢
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 5h ago
14%
▲6¢
✓ 25h UAE exits OPEC, raising oil supply concerns amid regional tensions
YES ▲3¢
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 5h ago
13%
▲3¢
5h Trump skeptical of Iran’s peace proposal amid nuclear impasse
NO ▲1¢
Iran military action against neighbors
1 article
Developing
39%
▼1¢
✓ 816m Iran missile campaign continues against UAE amid escalating tensions
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼1¢
1h Russia launches record 6,583 drones at Ukraine in April, escalating conflict
4h US deploys Merops drones amid rising tensions with Iran
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
✓ 21h Treasury Secretary Bessent calls Iran conflict gas price surge a short-term blip
3h Barclays predicts no Fed rate cuts until 2027 amid inflation, oil price concerns
NO ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
Developing
2%
▼1¢
1h Powell to remain Fed governor post-chair term, stabilizing markets
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
5 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
14m IRGC maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, ensuring vessel safety
55m Maersk backs US plan for safe ship passage through Strait of Hormuz
✓ 51h IRGC confirms no commercial transit through Hormuz amid ongoing blockade
Likely NO
Pharos network FDV predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
✓ 218m FINRA approves Securitize for tokenized IPOs, boosting US market prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
✓ 221m Bitcoin surges past $80K amid US-Israel-Iran conflict tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
3 articles
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
23m Bitcoin surpasses $80K, hits highest monthly profits in April 2026
✓ 21h BitMine Immersion boosts Ethereum holdings to over 4.2% of total supply
5h Bitmine stakes $508M in ETH, becomes largest corporate staker
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
27m Hezbollah rejects ceasefire, vows resistance to Israeli buffer zone in Lebanon
✓ 22h Israel expands military presence in Lebanon, withdrawal less likely by June 2026
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
36m UAE exits OPEC, oil prices expected to hit $90 by June
Likely NO
Trump out as president
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
38m Congress misses War Powers deadline amid Trump Iran conflict
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 243m Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid high fuel costs, no federal bailout
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Pentagon AI deals exclude Anthropic, signaling shift in vendor strategy
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
9 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high predictions 3% FLAT
✓ 21h Bitcoin surges past $77K as institutional hedging signals caution
1h Iran tensions disrupt aluminum supply, strain automakers amid US tariffs
2h Bitcoin surges past $80K amid US-Iran de-escalation, easing macro risks
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates, impacting withdrawal prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 4 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
2h Iran missile strike heightens Bitcoin volatility amid geopolitical tensions
2h Strategy raises $82M for Bitcoin purchase amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
✓ 32h Strategy pauses Bitcoin purchase, plans to resume next week
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
· 3h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 99% FLAT
3h Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ boosts oil prices amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
4h Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports threaten European energy supplies
5h Machine gun fire reported near Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
3h NATO deterrence bolstered as German minister affirms strong defense posture
Likely NO
Tamil nadu legislative assembly election winner 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h BJP leads in West Bengal, TVK gains in Tamil Nadu, impacting AITC prospects
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h Melania Trump adviser urges advertiser boycott over Kimmel’s controversial joke
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 4h ago
33%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 33% FLAT
✓ 24h Trump considers military action against Iran if talks stall: Axios
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
5h Ethereum whales accumulate $322M in 96 hours, boosting market confidence
Likely YES
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
15%
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
✓ 22m US denies Iranian strike on Navy, Trump rejects Iran’s 14-point plan
✓ 43h US alters engagement rules, escalating tensions in Strait of Hormuz