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✓ 91h Iran missile campaign continues against UAE amid escalating tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 91h Iran missile campaign continues against UAE amid escalating tensions
▼ Iran military action against neighbors
35% (was 40%, ▼5¢ in 1h)
NO ▲5¢
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 5h ago
88%
▼5¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 92% FLAT
5h China defies US sanctions on Iranian oil ahead of Xi-Trump summit
YES ▲4¢
Bitcoin price above on may 7
8 articles
Developing
35%
▲4¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 31% FLAT
45m UAE intercepts Iranian missiles, escalating regional tensions
✓ 22h Bitcoin surges past $77K as institutional hedging signals caution
2h Iran tensions disrupt aluminum supply, strain automakers amid US tariffs
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
5 articles
Developing
9%
▲1¢
✓ 41h IRGC maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, ensuring vessel safety
2h Maersk backs US plan for safe ship passage through Strait of Hormuz
✓ 52h IRGC confirms no commercial transit through Hormuz amid ongoing blockade
YES ▲1¢
Trump out as president
1 article
Developing
9%
▲1¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
1h Congress misses War Powers deadline amid Trump Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
✓ 22h Treasury Secretary Bessent calls Iran conflict gas price surge a short-term blip
4h Barclays predicts no Fed rate cuts until 2027 amid inflation, oil price concerns
NO ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼1¢
3h Powell to remain Fed governor post-chair term, stabilizing markets
NO ▲1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼1¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
4h NATO deterrence bolstered as German minister affirms strong defense posture
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
34%
▼0¢
7m Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with US
Likely NO
NATO and Russia military clash
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
10m Germany warns US troop withdrawal may weaken NATO deterrence against Russia
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
16m Zelensky unveils military reforms, signals extended Ukraine conflict
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
2 articles
Developing
35%
▼0¢
22m US seeks approval to deploy hypersonic weapons amid Iran tensions
✓ 239m Iran drone attack on UAE site escalates tensions, airspace closure possible
Likely NO
Ethereum price above on may 4
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 4 0% FLAT
40m Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $603M amid US-Iran tensions, Ethereum sees $99M boost
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 4
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
50m BitMNR buys $238M in Ethereum amid US-Iran tensions, Tom Lee declares ‘crypto spring’
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
Developing
15%
▼0¢
1h Iran halts nuclear talks with US, dimming deal prospects by May 31
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Iranian missile interceptions in Dubai impact S&P 500 market sentiment
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
99%
▼0¢
1h DeFAI integration on Solana could enhance blockchain’s utility and price
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 33% FLAT
1h Iranian foreign minister confirms no nuclear talks planned with US
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
✓ 21h US denies Iranian strike on Navy, Trump rejects Iran’s 14-point plan
✓ 44h US alters engagement rules, escalating tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Pharos network FDV predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
✓ 21h FINRA approves Securitize for tokenized IPOs, boosting US market prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
✓ 31h Bitcoin surges past $80K amid US-Israel-Iran conflict tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
1h Bitcoin surpasses $80K, hits highest monthly profits in April 2026
✓ 22h BitMine Immersion boosts Ethereum holdings to over 4.2% of total supply
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Hezbollah rejects ceasefire, vows resistance to Israeli buffer zone in Lebanon
✓ 23h Israel expands military presence in Lebanon, withdrawal less likely by June 2026
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h UAE exits OPEC, oil prices expected to hit $90 by June
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid high fuel costs, no federal bailout
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Pentagon AI deals exclude Anthropic, signaling shift in vendor strategy
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
2h Russia launches record 6,583 drones at Ukraine in April, escalating conflict
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates, impacting withdrawal prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 4 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
3h Iran missile strike heightens Bitcoin volatility amid geopolitical tensions
3h Strategy raises $82M for Bitcoin purchase amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
✓ 34h Strategy pauses Bitcoin purchase, plans to resume next week
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 99% FLAT
4h Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ boosts oil prices amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Tamil nadu legislative assembly election winner 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
▼0¢
4h BJP leads in West Bengal, TVK gains in Tamil Nadu, impacting AITC prospects
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
5h Melania Trump adviser urges advertiser boycott over Kimmel’s controversial joke