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1h Zelensky unveils military reforms, signals extended Ukraine conflict
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
1h Zelensky unveils military reforms, signals extended Ukraine conflict
▲ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
12% (was 9%, ▲3¢ in 1h)
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire: 8% FLAT
YES ▲3¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
Developing
12%
▲3¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
1h 
NO ▲2¢
Iran military action against neighbors
2 articles
Developing
33%
▼2¢
58m Bahrain declares national emergency amid Iran military threat
✓ 92h Iran missile campaign continues against UAE amid escalating tensions
YES ▲2¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▲2¢
3h Russia launches record 6,583 drones at Ukraine in April, escalating conflict
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
Developing
33%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 36% FLAT
✓ 216m Iran launches cruise missiles at US ships amid Persian Gulf tensions
2h Iran halts nuclear talks with US, dimming deal prospects by May 31
NO ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
Developing
33%
▼1¢
34m Iran airspace closure risk rises amid ongoing conflict, disrupts travel, energy markets
1h US seeks approval to deploy hypersonic weapons amid Iran tensions
✓ 21h Iran drone attack on UAE site escalates tensions, airspace closure possible
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
5 articles
Developing
27%
▼1¢
46m US sends more ships through Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
✓ 72h IRGC maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, ensuring vessel safety
3h Maersk backs US plan for safe ship passage through Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
27%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
✓ 753m Trump warns Iran of severe retaliation if US ships attacked in Hormuz
✓ 22h US denies Iranian strike on Navy, Trump rejects Iran’s 14-point plan
YES ▲1¢
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 2h ago
99.7%
▲1¢
2h DeFAI integration on Solana could enhance blockchain’s utility and price
YES ▲1¢
Trump out as president
1 article
· 3h ago
9%
▲1¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
3h Congress misses War Powers deadline amid Trump Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 4h ago
2%
▼1¢
4h Powell to remain Fed governor post-chair term, stabilizing markets
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
12%
▼0¢
✓ 29m Trump: Iran shows more flexibility in US diplomatic talks
2h Iranian foreign minister confirms no nuclear talks planned with US
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
6 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
12m Iran attack on UAE spikes oil prices above $105, impacting crypto sentiment
✓ 248m Brent crude oil surges past $119 amid US-Iran tensions
1h UAE intercepts Iranian missiles, escalating regional tensions
Likely NO
Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
19m Strategy confirms no Bitcoin purchase this week, impacting market expectations
✓ 35h Strategy pauses Bitcoin purchase, plans to resume next week
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
26m Fed’s Williams cites Iran war supply disruptions as inflation risk factor
✓ 23h Treasury Secretary Bessent calls Iran conflict gas price surge a short-term blip
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
✓ 255m Fed rate cut likelihood for June 2026 declines amid Williams’ inflation comments
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
34%
▼0¢
1h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with US
Likely NO
NATO and Russia military clash
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
1h Germany warns US troop withdrawal may weaken NATO deterrence against Russia
Likely NO
Ethereum price above on may 4
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 4 0% FLAT
1h Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $603M amid US-Iran tensions, Ethereum sees $99M boost
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 4
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
1h BitMNR buys $238M in Ethereum amid US-Iran tensions, Tom Lee declares ‘crypto spring’
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
2h Iranian missile interceptions in Dubai impact S&P 500 market sentiment
Likely NO
Pharos network FDV predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
✓ 22h FINRA approves Securitize for tokenized IPOs, boosting US market prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
✓ 32h Bitcoin surges past $80K amid US-Israel-Iran conflict tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
2h Bitcoin surpasses $80K, hits highest monthly profits in April 2026
✓ 23h BitMine Immersion boosts Ethereum holdings to over 4.2% of total supply
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Hezbollah rejects ceasefire, vows resistance to Israeli buffer zone in Lebanon
✓ 24h Israel expands military presence in Lebanon, withdrawal less likely by June 2026
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h UAE exits OPEC, oil prices expected to hit $90 by June
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid high fuel costs, no federal bailout
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Pentagon AI deals exclude Anthropic, signaling shift in vendor strategy
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
4h Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates, impacting withdrawal prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 4h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 4 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
4h Iran missile strike heightens Bitcoin volatility amid geopolitical tensions
4h Strategy raises $82M for Bitcoin purchase amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 99% FLAT
5h Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ boosts oil prices amid Strait of Hormuz tensions