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✓ 22h Bahrain declares national emergency amid Iran military threat
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 22h Bahrain declares national emergency amid Iran military threat
▼ Iran military action against neighbors
27% (was 35%, ▼8¢ in 2h)
NO ▲8¢
Iran military action against neighbors
2 articles
· 2h ago
27%
▼8¢
✓ 22h ✓ 93h Iran missile campaign continues against UAE amid escalating tensions
NO ▲7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
Developing
27%
▼7¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 36% FLAT
✓ 21h Iran launches cruise missiles at US ships amid Persian Gulf tensions
3h Iran halts nuclear talks with US, dimming deal prospects by May 31
NO ▲7¢
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
Developing
27%
▼7¢
1h Iran airspace closure risk rises amid ongoing conflict, disrupts travel, energy markets
2h US seeks approval to deploy hypersonic weapons amid Iran tensions
✓ 23h Iran drone attack on UAE site escalates tensions, airspace closure possible
NO ▲5¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
Developing
27%
▼5¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
⚡ Iran airspace closure 36% FLAT
✓ 31h Iran activates Project Freedom as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲2¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
· 2h ago
26%
▼2¢
2h US sends more ships through Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
✓ 73h IRGC maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, ensuring vessel safety
4h Maersk backs US plan for safe ship passage through Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲2¢
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 2h ago
26%
▼2¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
✓ 82h Trump warns Iran of severe retaliation if US ships attacked in Hormuz
✓ 23h US denies Iranian strike on Navy, Trump rejects Iran’s 14-point plan
YES ▲2¢
Trump out as president
1 article
· 4h ago
10%
▲2¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
4h Congress misses War Powers deadline amid Trump Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Kharg island control changes
1 article
Developing
8%
▼1¢
✓ 21h Iran declares unauthorized Hormuz vessels as legitimate targets amid US tensions
NO ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼1¢
✓ 21h Trump: Iran shows more flexibility in US diplomatic talks
3h Iranian foreign minister confirms no nuclear talks planned with US
YES ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
6%
▲1¢
5h Russia launches record 6,583 drones at Ukraine in April, escalating conflict
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 4% FLAT
11m Israel ready to resume military operations against Iran, awaits US approval
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
✓ 213m Russia warns of missile strike on Kyiv if Victory Day disrupted
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
36m Solana treasury firm launches $200M equity program amid price prediction focus
3h DeFAI integration on Solana could enhance blockchain’s utility and price
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
5 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
54m $200B erased from US markets amid escalating US-Iran tensions
✓ 41h Iran attack on UAE spikes oil prices above $105, impacting crypto sentiment
✓ 22h Brent crude oil surges past $119 amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 5% FLAT
✓ 41h Putin announces temporary ceasefire in Ukraine conflict amid ongoing hostilities
2h Zelensky unveils military reforms, signals extended Ukraine conflict
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
1h Nagel warns prolonged conflict may sustain eurozone inflation, complicating ECB policy
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Musk lawsuit adds uncertainty to OpenAI IPO plans before 2027
3h Iranian missile interceptions in Dubai impact S&P 500 market sentiment
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Spirit Airlines shuts down amid blocked merger, financial woes
✓ 24h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid high fuel costs, no federal bailout
Likely NO
Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Strategy confirms no Bitcoin purchase this week, impacting market expectations
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
✓ 21h Fed’s Williams cites Iran war supply disruptions as inflation risk factor
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
✓ 22h Fed rate cut likelihood for June 2026 declines amid Williams’ inflation comments
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
34%
▼0¢
2h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with US
Likely NO
NATO and Russia military clash
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
2h Germany warns US troop withdrawal may weaken NATO deterrence against Russia
Likely NO
Ethereum price above on may 4
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 4 0% FLAT
3h Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $603M amid US-Iran tensions, Ethereum sees $99M boost
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 4
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
3h BitMNR buys $238M in Ethereum amid US-Iran tensions, Tom Lee declares ‘crypto spring’
Likely NO
Pharos network FDV predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
✓ 23h FINRA approves Securitize for tokenized IPOs, boosting US market prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
1 article
· 4h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
✓ 34h Bitcoin surges past $80K amid US-Israel-Iran conflict tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
· 4h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
4h Bitcoin surpasses $80K, hits highest monthly profits in April 2026
✓ 24h BitMine Immersion boosts Ethereum holdings to over 4.2% of total supply
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
4h Hezbollah rejects ceasefire, vows resistance to Israeli buffer zone in Lebanon
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h UAE exits OPEC, oil prices expected to hit $90 by June
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Pentagon AI deals exclude Anthropic, signaling shift in vendor strategy
Likely YES
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
4%
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
just now Ethereum gas limit increased 3.3x for Glamsterdam upgrade, boosting scalability