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✓ 22h Iran launches cruise missiles at US ships amid Persian Gulf tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 22h Iran launches cruise missiles at US ships amid Persian Gulf tensions
▼ US-Iran nuclear deal
28% (was 34%, ▼6¢ in 2h)
⚡ Iran airspace closure: 36% FLAT
NO ▲6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
· 2h ago
28%
▼6¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 36% FLAT
✓ 22h 4h Iran halts nuclear talks with US, dimming deal prospects by May 31
NO ▲4¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
28%
▼4¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
⚡ Iran airspace closure 36% FLAT
✓ 52h Iran activates Project Freedom as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
Developing
9%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran shipping agreement 10% FLAT
✓ 21h CENTCOM redirects 50 vessels amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
27%
▲1¢
1h US-flagged vessels transit Hormuz amid ongoing blockade tensions
3h US sends more ships through Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
✓ 75h IRGC maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, ensuring vessel safety
YES ▲1¢
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
Developing
7%
▲1¢
✓ 21h Russia warns of missile strike on Kyiv if Victory Day disrupted
YES ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
7%
▲1¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 5% FLAT
✓ 42h Putin announces temporary ceasefire in Ukraine conflict amid ongoing hostilities
3h Zelensky unveils military reforms, signals extended Ukraine conflict
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 3h ago
27%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
✓ 83h Trump warns Iran of severe retaliation if US ships attacked in Hormuz
✓ 25h US denies Iranian strike on Navy, Trump rejects Iran’s 14-point plan
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
17m Iran-UAE tensions hit S&P 500 sentiment, opening odds plummet
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
24m Germany issues ultimatum to Iran amid US-Iran diplomatic tensions
3h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with US
Likely NO
Trump's presidency status by may
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
41m Powell remains Fed Chair as DOJ drops investigation amid Trump-era challenges
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
44m Israel intensifies military operations in Lebanon, issues new displacement orders
52m UAE bans travel to Iran, Lebanon, Iraq amid rising regional tensions
1h Iran denies plans to target UAE amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 5
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 4 0% FLAT
45m Nobitex linked to capital flight amid Iran’s political crisis, faces scrutiny
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
4 articles
Developing
28%
▼0¢
49m 44 Iranian seafarers killed amid US-Israeli conflict escalation
3h Iran airspace closure risk rises amid ongoing conflict, disrupts travel, energy markets
4h US seeks approval to deploy hypersonic weapons amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
3 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
50m US envoy submits nuclear amendments in Iran talks, signaling negotiation shift
✓ 22h Trump: Iran shows more flexibility in US diplomatic talks
4h Iranian foreign minister confirms no nuclear talks planned with US
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
56m IDF destroys Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
1h Ethereum gas limit increased 3.3x for Glamsterdam upgrade, boosting scalability
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 4% FLAT
1h Israel ready to resume military operations against Iran, awaits US approval
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Solana treasury firm launches $200M equity program amid price prediction focus
4h DeFAI integration on Solana could enhance blockchain’s utility and price
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
4 articles
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
2h $200B erased from US markets amid escalating US-Iran tensions
✓ 52h Iran attack on UAE spikes oil prices above $105, impacting crypto sentiment
✓ 23h Brent crude oil surges past $119 amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
2h Nagel warns prolonged conflict may sustain eurozone inflation, complicating ECB policy
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
2 articles
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Musk lawsuit adds uncertainty to OpenAI IPO plans before 2027
4h Iranian missile interceptions in Dubai impact S&P 500 market sentiment
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Iran declares unauthorized Hormuz vessels as legitimate targets amid US tensions
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Spirit Airlines shuts down amid blocked merger, financial woes
Likely NO
Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Strategy confirms no Bitcoin purchase this week, impacting market expectations
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
✓ 23h Fed’s Williams cites Iran war supply disruptions as inflation risk factor
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
✓ 23h Fed rate cut likelihood for June 2026 declines amid Williams’ inflation comments
Likely NO
NATO and Russia military clash
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
3h Germany warns US troop withdrawal may weaken NATO deterrence against Russia
Likely NO
Ethereum price above on may 4
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 4 0% FLAT
4h Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $603M amid US-Iran tensions, Ethereum sees $99M boost
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 4
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
4h BitMNR buys $238M in Ethereum amid US-Iran tensions, Tom Lee declares ‘crypto spring’
Likely NO
Pharos network FDV predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
4%
▼0¢
✓ 25h FINRA approves Securitize for tokenized IPOs, boosting US market prospects