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✓ 53h Iran activates Project Freedom as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 53h Iran activates Project Freedom as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
▼ US declaration of war on Iran
26% (was 32%, ▼6¢ in 3h)
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement: 28% FLAT · Iran airspace closure: 36% FLAT
NO ▲6¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
26%
▼6¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
⚡ Iran airspace closure 36% FLAT
✓ 53h 
NO ▲2¢
Iran airspace closure
4 articles
· 2h ago
26%
▼2¢
2h 44 Iranian seafarers killed amid US-Israeli conflict escalation
4h Iran airspace closure risk rises amid ongoing conflict, disrupts travel, energy markets
5h US seeks approval to deploy hypersonic weapons amid Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran shipping agreement 10% FLAT
✓ 22h CENTCOM redirects 50 vessels amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
YES ▲1¢
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▲1¢
3h Nagel warns prolonged conflict may sustain eurozone inflation, complicating ECB policy
YES ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
✓ 24h Fed rate cut likelihood for June 2026 declines amid Williams’ inflation comments
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 2h ago
11%
▼0¢
2h US envoy submits nuclear amendments in Iran talks, signaling negotiation shift
✓ 23h Trump: Iran shows more flexibility in US diplomatic talks
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h IDF destroys Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 2h ago
26%
▼0¢
✓ 22h US-flagged vessels transit Hormuz amid ongoing blockade tensions
4h US sends more ships through Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
2h Ethereum gas limit increased 3.3x for Glamsterdam upgrade, boosting scalability
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 4% FLAT
2h Israel ready to resume military operations against Iran, awaits US approval
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Russia warns of missile strike on Kyiv if Victory Day disrupted
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h Solana treasury firm launches $200M equity program amid price prediction focus
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 5% FLAT
✓ 43h Putin announces temporary ceasefire in Ukraine conflict amid ongoing hostilities
5h Zelensky unveils military reforms, signals extended Ukraine conflict
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 3h ago
9%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Iran declares unauthorized Hormuz vessels as legitimate targets amid US tensions
Likely NO
Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Strategy confirms no Bitcoin purchase this week, impacting market expectations
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
1 article
Developing
100%
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
1m Iran tensions heighten oil market uncertainty, crude may hit $90 by June
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
26%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
9m Iran attacks ships, UAE energy sites amid US naval operation in Hormuz
✓ 84h Trump warns Iran of severe retaliation if US ships attacked in Hormuz
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
16m Ripple shares North Korean threat intel to curb crypto hacks by 2026
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
30m China defies US sanctions, imports Iranian oil amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
4 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
35m Iran conflict reignites, boosting oil prices and hitting equity markets
3h $200B erased from US markets amid escalating US-Iran tensions
✓ 54h Iran attack on UAE spikes oil prices above $105, impacting crypto sentiment
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
Developing
15%
▼0¢
40m China defies US sanctions, imports Iranian oil amid nuclear deal tensions
✓ 24h Iran launches cruise missiles at US ships amid Persian Gulf tensions
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
41m Chevron warns of oil shortages as Strait of Hormuz closure looms
✓ 253m Palantir’s strong revenue forecast boosts defense AI investment amid US-Iran tensions
✓ 23h Musk lawsuit adds uncertainty to OpenAI IPO plans before 2027
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 244m Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid soaring fuel costs from Iran conflict
3h Spirit Airlines shuts down amid blocked merger, financial woes
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
✓ 250m IMF warns of severe economic impact if US-Iran conflict extends into 2027
✓ 24h Fed’s Williams cites Iran war supply disruptions as inflation risk factor
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 99% FLAT
57m Paul Tudor Jones backs Bitcoin as top inflation hedge amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
1h Iran-UAE tensions hit S&P 500 sentiment, opening odds plummet
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
1h Germany issues ultimatum to Iran amid US-Iran diplomatic tensions
5h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with US
Likely NO
Trump's presidency status by may
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
1h Powell remains Fed Chair as DOJ drops investigation amid Trump-era challenges
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
1h Israel intensifies military operations in Lebanon, issues new displacement orders
2h UAE bans travel to Iran, Lebanon, Iraq amid rising regional tensions
2h Iran denies plans to target UAE amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 5
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 4 0% FLAT
1h Nobitex linked to capital flight amid Iran’s political crisis, faces scrutiny
Likely NO
NATO and Russia military clash
1 article
· 5h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
5h Germany warns US troop withdrawal may weaken NATO deterrence against Russia