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✓ 54h Iran activates Project Freedom as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 54h Iran activates Project Freedom as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
▼ US declaration of war on Iran
26% (was 32%, ▼6¢ in 4h)
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement: 28% FLAT · Iran airspace closure: 36% FLAT
NO ▲6¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
26%
▼6¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
⚡ Iran airspace closure 36% FLAT
✓ 54h 
NO ▲2¢
Iran airspace closure
2 articles
· 3h ago
26%
▼2¢
3h 44 Iranian seafarers killed amid US-Israeli conflict escalation
5h Iran airspace closure risk rises amid ongoing conflict, disrupts travel, energy markets
YES ▲1¢
Fed chair confirmation predictions
1 article
Developing
2%
▲1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 2% FLAT
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 96% FLAT
30m Kevin Warsh expected to be confirmed as Fed Chair by mid-May
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
27%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
✓ 31h Iran attacks ships, UAE energy sites amid US naval operation in Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
✓ 21h IMF warns of severe economic impact if US-Iran conflict extends into 2027
✓ 25h Fed’s Williams cites Iran war supply disruptions as inflation risk factor
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 3h ago
9%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran shipping agreement 10% FLAT
✓ 23h CENTCOM redirects 50 vessels amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 3h ago
27%
▲1¢
✓ 23h US-flagged vessels transit Hormuz amid ongoing blockade tensions
5h US sends more ships through Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
11%
▼0¢
13m Trump dissatisfied with Iran’s peace deal response, no meeting scheduled
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
3 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
1h Iran conflict reignites, boosting oil prices and hitting equity markets
4h $200B erased from US markets amid escalating US-Iran tensions
✓ 55h Iran attack on UAE spikes oil prices above $105, impacting crypto sentiment
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Chevron warns of oil shortages as Strait of Hormuz closure looms
✓ 41h Palantir’s strong revenue forecast boosts defense AI investment amid US-Iran tensions
✓ 24h Musk lawsuit adds uncertainty to OpenAI IPO plans before 2027
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 31h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid soaring fuel costs from Iran conflict
4h Spirit Airlines shuts down amid blocked merger, financial woes
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 99% FLAT
2h Paul Tudor Jones backs Bitcoin as top inflation hedge amid geopolitical tensions
Likely YES
SpaceX IPO predictions
2 articles
Developing
71%
just now MegaETH DEX volume hits $130M as MEGA token debuts
2h Iran-UAE tensions hit S&P 500 sentiment, opening odds plummet
Likely NO
Trump visit to China
1 article
Developing
91%
▼0¢
17m Trump imposes new tariffs after Supreme Court ruling on $159B repayment
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
24m Senator Lummis urges swift passage of CLARITY Act to boost Bitcoin regulation
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
3 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
26m US intelligence reports limited damage to Iran’s nuclear program
1h China defies US sanctions, imports Iranian oil amid nuclear deal tensions
✓ 25h Iran launches cruise missiles at US ships amid Persian Gulf tensions
Likely NO
Ethereum price on may 5
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ S&P 500 movement on may 4 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
43m US-Iran tensions, oil price surge impact S&P 500, Ethereum markets
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
54m Diamondback boosts shale output amid Iran conflict, oil prices surge to $120
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
58m White House mulls AI model vetting amid US-China tech tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
1h Iran tensions heighten oil market uncertainty, crude may hit $90 by June
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Ripple shares North Korean threat intel to curb crypto hacks by 2026
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h China defies US sanctions, imports Iranian oil amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
14%
▼0¢
2h Germany issues ultimatum to Iran amid US-Iran diplomatic tensions
Likely NO
Trump's presidency status by may
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
2h Powell remains Fed Chair as DOJ drops investigation amid Trump-era challenges
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
· 3h ago
14%
▼0¢
3h Israel intensifies military operations in Lebanon, issues new displacement orders
3h UAE bans travel to Iran, Lebanon, Iraq amid rising regional tensions
3h Iran denies plans to target UAE amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 5
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 4 0% FLAT
3h Nobitex linked to capital flight amid Iran’s political crisis, faces scrutiny
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 3h ago
11%
▼0¢
3h US envoy submits nuclear amendments in Iran talks, signaling negotiation shift
✓ 25h Trump: Iran shows more flexibility in US diplomatic talks
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h IDF destroys Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
3h Ethereum gas limit increased 3.3x for Glamsterdam upgrade, boosting scalability
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 4% FLAT
3h Israel ready to resume military operations against Iran, awaits US approval
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Russia warns of missile strike on Kyiv if Victory Day disrupted
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
▼0¢
4h Solana treasury firm launches $200M equity program amid price prediction focus
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 5% FLAT
✓ 44h Putin announces temporary ceasefire in Ukraine conflict amid ongoing hostilities
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
2%
▼0¢
4h Nagel warns prolonged conflict may sustain eurozone inflation, complicating ECB policy
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼0¢
✓ 24h Iran declares unauthorized Hormuz vessels as legitimate targets amid US tensions
Likely NO
Microstrategy Bitcoin purchase announcement
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Strategy confirms no Bitcoin purchase this week, impacting market expectations