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4h 44 Iranian seafarers killed amid US-Israeli conflict escalation
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
4h 44 Iranian seafarers killed amid US-Israeli conflict escalation
▼ Iran airspace closure
26% (was 28%, ▼2¢ in 4h)
YES ▲1¢
Fed decision june and july
1 article
Developing
3%
▲1¢
30m IMF warns prolonged Middle East conflict could spike oil prices, impact inflation
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum price on may 5
2 articles
Developing
3%
▲1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
38m Global inflation rise may impact Ethereum prices, Fed rate cuts unlikely
1h US-Iran tensions, oil price surge impact S&P 500, Ethereum markets
YES ▲1¢
Fed chair confirmation predictions
1 article
Developing
2%
▲1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 2% FLAT
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 96% FLAT
1h Kevin Warsh expected to be confirmed as Fed Chair by mid-May
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
27%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
✓ 52h Iran attacks ships, UAE energy sites amid US naval operation in Hormuz
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran shipping agreement 10% FLAT
✓ 24h CENTCOM redirects 50 vessels amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 4h ago
27%
▲1¢
✓ 24h US-flagged vessels transit Hormuz amid ongoing blockade tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 26m Trump administration mulls AI model review order, impacting Anthropic timeline
2h White House mulls AI model vetting amid US-China tech tensions
Likely NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation timeline
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
10m US indicts Sinaloa governor, raising stakes for anti-cartel operations
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
Developing
27%
▼0¢
12m IRGC warns US against Hormuz intervention amid rising invasion risk
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
15m Meta secures $13B financing for Texas AI data center despite debt concerns
24m Meta and Google revenue growth boosts confidence in stock targets for April 2026
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
19m Fed rate hike probability rises amid inflation, Iran tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
33m VP Vance predicts 100M Americans will soon own Bitcoin, boosting adoption
3h Paul Tudor Jones backs Bitcoin as top inflation hedge amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ S&P 500 movement on may 4 0% FLAT
53m Iran tensions rise as US, Israeli airstrikes hit military targets
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Iran targets UAE with missile strikes amid regional tensions
4h Israel intensifies military operations in Lebanon, issues new displacement orders
4h UAE bans travel to Iran, Lebanon, Iraq amid rising regional tensions
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
1h Iran conflict drives US gasoline prices to 4-year high, impacting restaurants
✓ 23h IMF warns of severe economic impact if US-Iran conflict extends into 2027
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
2 articles
Developing
94%
▼0¢
1h MegaETH DEX volume hits $130M as MEGA token debuts
3h Iran-UAE tensions hit S&P 500 sentiment, opening odds plummet
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
11%
▼0¢
1h Trump dissatisfied with Iran’s peace deal response, no meeting scheduled
Likely NO
Trump visit to China
1 article
Developing
91%
▼0¢
1h Trump imposes new tariffs after Supreme Court ruling on $159B repayment
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h Senator Lummis urges swift passage of CLARITY Act to boost Bitcoin regulation
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
✓ 31h US intelligence reports limited damage to Iran’s nuclear program
2h China defies US sanctions, imports Iranian oil amid nuclear deal tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Diamondback boosts shale output amid Iran conflict, oil prices surge to $120
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
2h Iran tensions heighten oil market uncertainty, crude may hit $90 by June
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Ripple shares North Korean threat intel to curb crypto hacks by 2026
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
2h China defies US sanctions, imports Iranian oil amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
✓ 32h Iran conflict reignites, boosting oil prices and hitting equity markets
5h $200B erased from US markets amid escalating US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 32h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid soaring fuel costs from Iran conflict
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 3h ago
14%
▼0¢
3h Germany issues ultimatum to Iran amid US-Iran diplomatic tensions
Likely NO
Trump's presidency status by may
1 article
· 4h ago
2%
▼0¢
4h Powell remains Fed Chair as DOJ drops investigation amid Trump-era challenges
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 5
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 4 0% FLAT
4h Nobitex linked to capital flight amid Iran’s political crisis, faces scrutiny
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 4h ago
11%
▼0¢
4h US envoy submits nuclear amendments in Iran talks, signaling negotiation shift
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
4h IDF destroys Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
3 articles
Developing
0%
✓ 222m Explosion in Strait of Hormuz impacts S&P 500, curbs optimism on earnings
2h Chevron warns of oil shortages as Strait of Hormuz closure looms
✓ 43h Palantir’s strong revenue forecast boosts defense AI investment amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
4h Ethereum gas limit increased 3.3x for Glamsterdam upgrade, boosting scalability
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 4% FLAT
4h Israel ready to resume military operations against Iran, awaits US approval
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 24h Russia warns of missile strike on Kyiv if Victory Day disrupted
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 5h ago
0%
▼0¢
5h Solana treasury firm launches $200M equity program amid price prediction focus