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39m US economic indicators hit 0.84, matching 2008 crisis low
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
39m US economic indicators hit 0.84, matching 2008 crisis low
▲ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
100% (was 99%, ▲1¢ in 39m)
⚡ US GDP growth Q1 2026: 100% FLAT
YES ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
3 articles
Developing
99.5%
▲1¢
⚡ US GDP growth Q1 2026 100% FLAT
39m 2h Iran conflict drives US gasoline prices to 4-year high, impacting restaurants
✓ 24h IMF warns of severe economic impact if US-Iran conflict extends into 2027
YES ▲1¢
Fed decision june and july
1 article
Developing
3%
▲1¢
1h IMF warns prolonged Middle East conflict could spike oil prices, impact inflation
YES ▲1¢
Fed chair confirmation predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▲1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 2% FLAT
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 96% FLAT
2h Kevin Warsh expected to be confirmed as Fed Chair by mid-May
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
27%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
✓ 53h Iran attacks ships, UAE energy sites amid US naval operation in Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 4h ago
13%
▼1¢
4h Germany issues ultimatum to Iran amid US-Iran diplomatic tensions
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
3 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
4m US intelligence reports limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program
✓ 32h US intelligence reports limited damage to Iran’s nuclear program
3h China defies US sanctions, imports Iranian oil amid nuclear deal tensions
Likely NO
Ethereum price on may 5
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
17m Iranian drone attacks on UAE pressure US bond market, yields surge
1h Global inflation rise may impact Ethereum prices, Fed rate cuts unlikely
2h US-Iran tensions, oil price surge impact S&P 500, Ethereum markets
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
24m Bitcoin surpasses $80k amid low on-chain activity, up 22% in 5 weeks
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
27m Oil prices surge as US-Israel-Iran tensions disrupt supply routes
3h Diamondback boosts shale output amid Iran conflict, oil prices surge to $120
Likely NO
UAE and qatar diplomatic relations in 2026
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
31m Qatar condemns Iran attack on UAE, strengthens Gulf unity
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
32m Spirit Airlines shuts down, JetBlue offers rescue fares after bailout denial
✓ 34h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid soaring fuel costs from Iran conflict
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
Developing
27%
▼0¢
46m US military escorts Maersk ship through Hormuz, easing passage tensions
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
✓ 349m Iran tensions rise as attacks hit UAE, ships; oil prices expected to climb
56m US deploys F-16s in Project Freedom amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
Developing
27%
▼0¢
52m US-Iran tensions rise as Strait of Hormuz blockade remains in place
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
Developing
27%
▼0¢
53m Renewed attacks in Hormuz suggest ongoing US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
27%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 27% FLAT
54m Trump signals limited escalation with Iran amid Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
4 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
59m European stock futures fall amid US trade tensions and Middle East conflicts
✓ 31h Explosion in Strait of Hormuz impacts S&P 500, curbs optimism on earnings
3h Chevron warns of oil shortages as Strait of Hormuz closure looms
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Trump calls Xi meeting important, highlights US AI leadership
3h China defies US sanctions, imports Iranian oil amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 31h Trump administration mulls AI model review order, impacting Anthropic timeline
3h White House mulls AI model vetting amid US-China tech tensions
Likely NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation timeline
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h US indicts Sinaloa governor, raising stakes for anti-cartel operations
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
Developing
27%
▼0¢
1h IRGC warns US against Hormuz intervention amid rising invasion risk
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
1h Meta secures $13B financing for Texas AI data center despite debt concerns
1h Meta and Google revenue growth boosts confidence in stock targets for April 2026
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
1h Fed rate hike probability rises amid inflation, Iran tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
1h VP Vance predicts 100M Americans will soon own Bitcoin, boosting adoption
4h Paul Tudor Jones backs Bitcoin as top inflation hedge amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ S&P 500 movement on may 4 0% FLAT
1h Iran tensions rise as US, Israeli airstrikes hit military targets
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Iran targets UAE with missile strikes amid regional tensions
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
2 articles
· 2h ago
94%
▼0¢
2h MegaETH DEX volume hits $130M as MEGA token debuts
4h Iran-UAE tensions hit S&P 500 sentiment, opening odds plummet
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
11%
▼0¢
2h Trump dissatisfied with Iran’s peace deal response, no meeting scheduled
Likely NO
Trump visit to China
1 article
· 2h ago
91%
▼0¢
2h Trump imposes new tariffs after Supreme Court ruling on $159B repayment
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Senator Lummis urges swift passage of CLARITY Act to boost Bitcoin regulation
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 6
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
3h Iran tensions heighten oil market uncertainty, crude may hit $90 by June
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Ripple shares North Korean threat intel to curb crypto hacks by 2026
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
✓ 33h Iran conflict reignites, boosting oil prices and hitting equity markets