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18h Iran war disrupts global jet fuel supplies, threatens summer travel
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
18h Iran war disrupts global jet fuel supplies, threatens summer travel
▲ Iran airspace closure
38% (was 32%, ▲6¢ in 18h)
⚡ Israel airspace closure: 29% FLAT
YES ▲6¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 18h ago
38%
▲6¢
⚡ Israel airspace closure 29% FLAT
18h 
NO ▲5¢
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 15h ago
17%
▼5¢
15h US-Iran conflict drives energy prices, fuels inflation concerns
NO ▲4¢
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 10h ago
34%
▼4¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 38% FLAT
10h US Navy strike on Iranian supertanker raises regional tensions
✓ 217h Iran deploys submarines in Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
YES ▲4¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 15h ago
32%
▲4¢
⚡ Israel airspace closure 28% FLAT
15h Israel operates secret military base in Iraq, escalating regional tensions
NO ▲3¢
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
· 10h ago
38%
▼3¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 40% FLAT
✓ 910h UAE strikes Iranian refinery on Lavan Island amid escalating tensions
✓ 416h Iran-US military strikes strain ceasefire, escalate regional tensions
✓ 316h Iran launches 1,500 missiles at Israel, Iron Dome intercepts 99%
NO ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
2 articles
· 2h ago
38%
▼2¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 40% FLAT
2h Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz, escalating US tensions
✓ 57h US sanctions target Iran’s oil shipments to China amid rising tensions
YES ▲2¢
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
2 articles
· 7h ago
53%
▲2¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 27h Strait of Hormuz closure pressures WTI Crude Oil towards $110
✓ 212h Strait of Hormuz tensions threaten global oil supply, WTI prices may rise
NO ▲2¢
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
· 16h ago
9%
▼2¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 50% FLAT
⚡ Iran shipping agreement 11% FLAT
✓ 216h Iran asserts sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz, tensions with US rise
YES ▲2¢
Potential strike on Iran by june
1 article
· 18h ago
29%
▲2¢
⚡ Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31 12% FLAT
18h UK, France gather 40 nations to discuss reopening Strait of Hormuz
YES ▲1¢
Starmer out timing
3 articles
· 7h ago
70%
▲1¢
✓ 77h Labour MPs revolt against Starmer amid leadership instability and low ratings
✓ 510h UK Deputy PM Lammy urges Starmer to outline departure timetable
✓ 414h Starmer nationalizes British Steel, aligns Labour with EU amid leadership concerns
NO ▲1¢
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
2 articles
· 7h ago
12%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 38% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 1% FLAT
✓ 27h Pentagon reveals nuclear sub location amid US-Iran tension in Strait of Hormuz
16h US military forces 62 ships to reroute in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 10h ago
12%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 1% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
10h US considers military action to open Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 12h ago
59%
▲1¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
12h Bank of America delays Fed rate cuts to 2027 amid persistent inflation
YES ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
5 articles
· 14h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 26% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 30% FLAT
✓ 1214h Trump to discuss military options on Iran as tensions rise
15h Trump rejects Iran proposal, dims hopes for nuclear deal by May 31
✓ 415h Trump statement stalls US-Iran talks, dims nuclear deal prospects
YES ▲1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 15h ago
7%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 46% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 30% FLAT
✓ 615h Iran excludes uranium removal in US proposal, complicating nuclear talks
NO ▲1¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 15h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 10% FLAT
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 4% FLAT
15h Iran leaders reportedly assassinated, complicating US nuclear deal prospects
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
2 articles
· 16h ago
12%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 22% FLAT
16h Norden expects ships stuck in Strait of Hormuz all year amid US-Iran tensions
18h Iran threatens permanent closure of Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
5 articles
Developing
53%
▼0¢
46m US-Iran tensions threaten oil supply via Strait of Hormuz
✓ 22h US-Iran tensions rise, impacting oil and Bitcoin market predictions
✓ 310h Aramco CEO forecasts oil market recovery extending to 2027 amid disruptions
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
Developing
19%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 46% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 6% FLAT
✓ 246m Iran threatens 90% uranium enrichment if US resumes strikes
13h Iran rejects 20-year enrichment freeze, US refuses reparations amid nuclear talks
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13
1 article
· 3h ago
99.6%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high predictions 2% FLAT
3h Bitcoin briefly surpasses $82,000 amid easing geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 3h ago
99%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 12 100% FLAT
3h Bitcoin support at $80,000 firm amid ETF inflows, geopolitical easing
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
3 articles
· 5h ago
19%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 10% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
5h Netanyahu vows Iran conflict persists until uranium removal
✓ 610h Trump suspends gas tax, signals prolonged Iran conflict and high energy costs
✓ 214h Iran ready to downblend uranium amid US-Iran nuclear talks
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 6h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 97% FLAT
⚡ Fed chair confirmation predictions 100% FLAT
✓ 26h Senate advances Kevin Warsh nomination for Fed Chair, Powell exit unlikely by May
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 6h ago
12%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 46% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 1% FLAT
6h Iran deploys mini subs in Hormuz, escalating US naval standoff
Likely NO
Next prime minister of denmark
1 article
· 10h ago
2%
▼0¢
10h Troels Lund Poulsen tasked with forming Denmark’s new center-right government
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
3 articles
· 10h ago
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 10% FLAT
✓ 810h Trump rejects Iran peace proposal, impacting US-Iran nuclear deal prospects
✓ 717h Trump considers renewing Project Freedom amid US-Iran tensions
✓ 917h Iran’s firm stance on uranium enrichment complicates US nuclear deal talks
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 13h ago
99.6%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 413h Bitcoin surges above $82,000 amid US-Iran de-escalation signals
Likely NO
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 17h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 10% FLAT
17h Israel plans to escalate Lebanon invasion despite troop shortages