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1h Iran accuses US of killing civilians, raising airspace closure risks
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
1h Iran accuses US of killing civilians, raising airspace closure risks
▼ Iran military action against neighbors
20% (was 23%, ▼3¢ in 1h)
NO ▲3¢
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
Developing
20%
▼3¢
1h ✓ 23h UAE intercepts missiles from Iran, escalating Gulf tensions
3h Iran threatens retaliation as US-Israel military campaign intensifies
NO ▲2¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 4h ago
25%
▼2¢
4h Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz amid US talks for potential blockade lift
4h South Korea joins talks to ensure safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum price on may 5
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
3h Iran tensions, oil shortages impact Fed rate cut expectations for 2026
YES ▲1¢
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
79%
▲1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 70% FLAT
4h China blocks US funding for AI startups amid Meta acquisition tensions
YES ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
5%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 4% FLAT
5h Stablecoin yield compromise boosts Bitcoin’s long-term regulatory outlook
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
4 articles
Developing
25%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 25% FLAT
10m US-Iran tensions rise as US Navy escorts tankers through Strait of Hormuz
38m Trump weighs Iran military response after Strait of Hormuz attacks: WSJ
53m US troop withdrawal from Germany signals Iran de-escalation shift
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
11m Trump administration considers AI oversight, impacting Anthropic’s US deal
6h White House considers pre-release reviews for Anthropic’s AI model Mythos
Likely NO
NATO and Russia military clash
2 articles
Developing
19%
▼0¢
18m Russian attack on Ukraine’s Naftogaz gas facilities kills five, stalls ceasefire
43m Ukraine missile strike hits key Russian military electronics plant
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
1 article
Developing
12%
▼0¢
21m Iraq offers crude discounts amid Strait of Hormuz shipping risks
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
28m Middle East tensions impact Fed rate cut likelihood, support higher oil prices
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
4 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
32m Iran missile strikes disrupt oil supply routes, boost WTI crude prices
2h Bitmine stakes $10.2B in Ethereum amid geopolitical tensions
✓ 34h Bitcoin surges past $81,000 amid US-Iran tensions, highest since January
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
47m Australia raises interest rates amid global easing trend
3h Middle East conflict drives oil prices to $119, impacting global inflation
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
58m Thailand approves emergency borrowing amid US-Israel-Iran conflict
✓ 25h Iran tensions threaten oil transit, WTI crude may hit $150 in May
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
4 articles
Developing
25%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 25% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 60% FLAT
1h Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz, escalating US-Iran tensions
2h South Korean vessel explosion adds to Strait of Hormuz instability
4h Iran tensions rise as hackers leak US Navy officer data in Persian Gulf
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 4
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 4 100% FLAT
1h Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see $593M inflows amid geopolitical tensions
✓ 44h US Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquire $532.3M in Bitcoin amid regulatory clarity push
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
1h Iran threatens European bases amid rising geopolitical tensions
4h Iran-US ceasefire on brink as military actions escalate
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 2h ago
25%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Iran solidifies stance on Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
3h Vessels cluster near Dubai as Iran asserts control over Hormuz strait
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Geopolitical tensions in Hormuz impact ECB rate cut expectations for April 2026
Likely NO
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 3h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
✓ 23h Bitcoin surges past $81,000 amid US-Iran tensions, reinforcing safe-haven status
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h Western Union launches stablecoin on Solana, boosting network confidence
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h Israel orders evacuations in southern Lebanon amid ongoing military operations
5h Hezbollah rejects talks as tensions rise, impacting Israeli withdrawal odds
Likely NO
Scotland parliamentary election winner
1 article
· 4h ago
40%
▼0¢
4h SNP projected to win fifth term in 2026 Scottish Parliament election
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Iran-US diplomatic talks expected soon amid nuclear tensions
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Spirit Airlines files for bankruptcy, seeks retention payments amid shutdown
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 5
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
4h Fidelity’s alleged $184M Bitcoin purchase fuels institutional interest speculation
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 100% FLAT
5h Bitwise fund approval boosts mainstream crypto access
5h Bitcoin open interest hits $60.9B amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Strait of Hormuz closure fuels oil price surge amid global shortages
Likely NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation timeline
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Mexico deploys top security officials to Sinaloa amid cartel violence escalation
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Crypto stocks rally as Clarity Act advances in US Senate