Earn with Nexo
12m Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
12m Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
▲ Trump out as president
18% (was 17%, ▲1¢ in 12m)
⚡ Iran airspace closure: 16% FLAT
YES ▲1¢
Trump out as president
1 article
Developing
18%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
12m 
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
4 articles
Developing
26%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 25% FLAT
✓ 31h US-Iran tensions rise as US Navy escorts tankers through Strait of Hormuz
1h Trump weighs Iran military response after Strait of Hormuz attacks: WSJ
1h US troop withdrawal from Germany signals Iran de-escalation shift
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
1 article
Developing
11%
▼1¢
✓ 21h Iraq offers crude discounts amid Strait of Hormuz shipping risks
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
4 articles
· 2h ago
26%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 25% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 60% FLAT
2h Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz, escalating US-Iran tensions
3h South Korean vessel explosion adds to Strait of Hormuz instability
5h Iran tensions rise as hackers leak US Navy officer data in Persian Gulf
YES ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 3h ago
26%
▲1¢
✓ 23h Iran solidifies stance on Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
4h Vessels cluster near Dubai as Iran asserts control over Hormuz strait
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum price on may 5
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
4h Iran tensions, oil shortages impact Fed rate cut expectations for 2026
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 5h ago
26%
▼1¢
5h Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz amid US talks for potential blockade lift
5h South Korea joins talks to ensure safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
YES ▲1¢
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
79%
▲1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 70% FLAT
5h China blocks US funding for AI startups amid Meta acquisition tensions
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Geopolitical tensions in Hormuz impact ECB rate cut expectations for April 2026
Likely NO
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 4h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
✓ 24h Bitcoin surges past $81,000 amid US-Iran tensions, reinforcing safe-haven status
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
▼0¢
4h Western Union launches stablecoin on Solana, boosting network confidence
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
4h Israel orders evacuations in southern Lebanon amid ongoing military operations
Likely NO
Scotland parliamentary election winner
1 article
· 5h ago
40%
▼0¢
5h SNP projected to win fifth term in 2026 Scottish Parliament election
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Iran-US diplomatic talks expected soon amid nuclear tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 5
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
5h Fidelity’s alleged $184M Bitcoin purchase fuels institutional interest speculation
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 100% FLAT
6h Bitwise fund approval boosts mainstream crypto access
Likely YES
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
Developing
9%
just now Iran missile strike on US Navy escalates tensions, potential for US response
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 8
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
5m $226M in crypto short positions liquidated amid US-Iran-Israel tensions
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 58% FLAT
14m IRGC tightens control over Persian Gulf, impacting Strait of Hormuz transit
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
Developing
18%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
33m Israeli cities open shelters amid rising threat of Iranian attacks
2h Iran accuses US of killing civilians, raising airspace closure risks
✓ 24h UAE intercepts missiles from Iran, escalating Gulf tensions
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
49m Spirit Airlines to cease operations after failed bailout talks
5h Spirit Airlines files for bankruptcy, seeks retention payments amid shutdown
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
52m IAEA engages Russia on Iran uranium amid hardline leadership shift
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Trump administration considers AI oversight, impacting Anthropic’s US deal
Likely NO
NATO and Russia military clash
2 articles
Developing
19%
▼0¢
1h Russian attack on Ukraine’s Naftogaz gas facilities kills five, stalls ceasefire
1h Ukraine missile strike hits key Russian military electronics plant
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
1h Middle East tensions impact Fed rate cut likelihood, support higher oil prices
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
4 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
1h Iran missile strikes disrupt oil supply routes, boost WTI crude prices
3h Bitmine stakes $10.2B in Ethereum amid geopolitical tensions
✓ 35h Bitcoin surges past $81,000 amid US-Iran tensions, highest since January
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
1h Australia raises interest rates amid global easing trend
4h Middle East conflict drives oil prices to $119, impacting global inflation
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
Developing
14%
▼0¢
1h Thailand approves emergency borrowing amid US-Israel-Iran conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 4
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 4 100% FLAT
2h Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see $593M inflows amid geopolitical tensions
✓ 45h US Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquire $532.3M in Bitcoin amid regulatory clarity push
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
2h Iran threatens European bases amid rising geopolitical tensions
5h Iran-US ceasefire on brink as military actions escalate
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
6h Strait of Hormuz closure fuels oil price surge amid global shortages