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✓ 26h Bitcoin surges past $81,000 amid US-Iran tensions, reinforcing safe-haven status
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 26h Bitcoin surges past $81,000 amid US-Iran tensions, reinforcing safe-haven status
▲ XRP price predictions for may
33% (was 30%, ▲3¢ in 6h)
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6: 100% FLAT
YES ▲3¢
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 6h ago
33%
▲3¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
✓ 26h 
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
6 articles
Developing
25%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 63% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
✓ 21h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
1h Pete Hegseth scrutinized over war powers in Iran hearing
✓ 33h US-Iran tensions rise as US Navy escorts tankers through Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
25%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 63% FLAT
1h US establishes defensive umbrella over Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with Iran
2h Maersk ship transits Strait of Hormuz under US military escort amid tensions
NO ▲1¢
Trump out as president
1 article
· 2h ago
16%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
2h Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
NO ▲1¢
NATO and Russia military clash
2 articles
· 3h ago
78%
▼1¢
3h Russian attack on Ukraine’s Naftogaz gas facilities kills five, stalls ceasefire
4h Ukraine missile strike hits key Russian military electronics plant
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum price on may 5
1 article
· 7h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
7h Iran tensions, oil shortages impact Fed rate cut expectations for 2026
Likely NO
Romanian PM bolojan departure
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
✓ 213m Romanian PM Bolojan likely to exit after government collapse
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
21m Pentagon labels Anthropic a supply chain risk amid AI policy shift
3h Trump administration considers AI oversight, impacting Anthropic’s US deal
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
2 articles
Developing
25%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 24% FLAT
29m US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush conducts operations in Arabian Sea
✓ 23h Iraq offers crude discounts amid Strait of Hormuz shipping risks
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
46m Iran refuses US meeting as envoys visit Pakistan for talks
1h Nobitex linked to sanctions evasion amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
48m Russia launches massive missile, drone assault on Dnipro, injuring 30
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
Developing
99.6%
▼0¢
1h Ripple shares North Korea-linked threat data as crypto hacks evolve
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Iran tests ceasefire limits with UAE attacks, maritime threats
1h Trump challenges War Powers Act as Iran conflict escalates
3h Israeli cities open shelters amid rising threat of Iranian attacks
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 38% FLAT
1h Iran leadership instability fuels regime change speculation amid command crisis
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
1 article
Developing
68%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 100% FLAT
✓ 21h Bitcoin inflows hit $117.8M amid US-Iran ceasefire talks
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may 5
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
1h Ethereum outperforms S&P 500, seen as top wartime store of value
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
3 articles
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
2h US-Iran tensions drive rupee to record low, impact oil and Bitcoin markets
3h Iran missile strikes disrupt oil supply routes, boost WTI crude prices
5h Bitmine stakes $10.2B in Ethereum amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
2h Iran missile strike on US Navy escalates tensions, potential for US response
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 8
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
2h $226M in crypto short positions liquidated amid US-Iran-Israel tensions
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 58% FLAT
2h IRGC tightens control over Persian Gulf, impacting Strait of Hormuz transit
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Spirit Airlines to cease operations after failed bailout talks
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
· 3h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
3h IAEA engages Russia on Iran uranium amid hardline leadership shift
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
3h Middle East tensions impact Fed rate cut likelihood, support higher oil prices
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
4h Australia raises interest rates amid global easing trend
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
14%
▼0¢
4h Thailand approves emergency borrowing amid US-Israel-Iran conflict
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
2 articles
· 4h ago
25%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 25% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 60% FLAT
4h Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz, escalating US-Iran tensions
6h South Korean vessel explosion adds to Strait of Hormuz instability
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 4
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 4 100% FLAT
5h Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see $593M inflows amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
5h Iran threatens European bases amid rising geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 5h ago
25%
▼0¢
✓ 25h Iran solidifies stance on Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
6h Vessels cluster near Dubai as Iran asserts control over Hormuz strait
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
6h Geopolitical tensions in Hormuz impact ECB rate cut expectations for April 2026
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 6h ago
0%
▼0¢
6h Western Union launches stablecoin on Solana, boosting network confidence
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
6h Israel orders evacuations in southern Lebanon amid ongoing military operations