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3h Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
3h Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
▼ Trump out as president
14% (was 17%, ▼3¢ in 3h)
⚡ Iran airspace closure: 16% FLAT
YES ▲2¢
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 7h ago
32%
▲2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
✓ 27h Bitcoin surges past $81,000 amid US-Iran tensions, reinforcing safe-haven status
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 2h ago
25%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 63% FLAT
2h US establishes defensive umbrella over Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with Iran
3h Maersk ship transits Strait of Hormuz under US military escort amid tensions
YES ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
1 article
· 2h ago
69%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 100% FLAT
✓ 32h Bitcoin inflows hit $117.8M amid US-Iran ceasefire talks
NO ▲1¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
4h IAEA engages Russia on Iran uranium amid hardline leadership shift
NO ▲1¢
NATO and Russia military clash
2 articles
· 4h ago
78%
▼1¢
4h Russian attack on Ukraine’s Naftogaz gas facilities kills five, stalls ceasefire
5h Ukraine missile strike hits key Russian military electronics plant
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
11%
▼0¢
4m Trump warns of military action over Iran peace proposal dissatisfaction
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
13m US sanctions Iranian currency exchanges, impacting oil trade with China
5h Thailand approves emergency borrowing amid US-Israel-Iran conflict
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
7 articles
Developing
25%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 24% FLAT
48m Iran attacks US Navy, UAE oil sites as Hormuz tensions escalate
✓ 22h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
2h Pete Hegseth scrutinized over war powers in Iran hearing
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
Developing
40%
▼0¢
55m Labour faces historic losses as Reform UK leads polls ahead of May 2026 elections
Likely NO
Romanian PM bolojan departure
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Romanian PM Bolojan likely to exit after government collapse
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Pentagon labels Anthropic a supply chain risk amid AI policy shift
4h Trump administration considers AI oversight, impacting Anthropic’s US deal
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
2 articles
Developing
25%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 24% FLAT
✓ 21h US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush conducts operations in Arabian Sea
✓ 24h Iraq offers crude discounts amid Strait of Hormuz shipping risks
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
40%
▼0¢
1h Iran refuses US meeting as envoys visit Pakistan for talks
2h Nobitex linked to sanctions evasion amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h Russia launches massive missile, drone assault on Dnipro, injuring 30
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
Developing
99.7%
▼0¢
1h Ripple shares North Korea-linked threat data as crypto hacks evolve
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Iran tests ceasefire limits with UAE attacks, maritime threats
2h Trump challenges War Powers Act as Iran conflict escalates
3h Israeli cities open shelters amid rising threat of Iranian attacks
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 38% FLAT
2h Iran leadership instability fuels regime change speculation amid command crisis
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may 5
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
2h Ethereum outperforms S&P 500, seen as top wartime store of value
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
3 articles
· 3h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
3h US-Iran tensions drive rupee to record low, impact oil and Bitcoin markets
4h Iran missile strikes disrupt oil supply routes, boost WTI crude prices
6h Bitmine stakes $10.2B in Ethereum amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
9%
▼0¢
3h Iran missile strike on US Navy escalates tensions, potential for US response
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 8
1 article
· 3h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
3h $226M in crypto short positions liquidated amid US-Iran-Israel tensions
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 3h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 58% FLAT
3h IRGC tightens control over Persian Gulf, impacting Strait of Hormuz transit
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 24h Spirit Airlines to cease operations after failed bailout talks
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
4h Middle East tensions impact Fed rate cut likelihood, support higher oil prices
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
5h Australia raises interest rates amid global easing trend
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
2 articles
· 5h ago
25%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 25% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 60% FLAT
5h Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz, escalating US-Iran tensions
7h South Korean vessel explosion adds to Strait of Hormuz instability
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 4
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 4 100% FLAT
5h Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see $593M inflows amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
6h Iran threatens European bases amid rising geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 6h ago
25%
▼0¢
✓ 26h Iran solidifies stance on Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
7h Geopolitical tensions in Hormuz impact ECB rate cut expectations for April 2026
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 7h ago
0%
▼0¢
7h Western Union launches stablecoin on Solana, boosting network confidence