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4h Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
4h Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
▲ Trump out as president
19% (was 17%, ▲2¢ in 4h)
⚡ Iran airspace closure: 16% FLAT
NO ▲1¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 2h ago
39%
▼1¢
2h Iran refuses US meeting as envoys visit Pakistan for talks
3h Nobitex linked to sanctions evasion amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
1 article
· 3h ago
69%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 100% FLAT
✓ 33h Bitcoin inflows hit $117.8M amid US-Iran ceasefire talks
NO ▲1¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
· 5h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
5h IAEA engages Russia on Iran uranium amid hardline leadership shift
NO ▲1¢
NATO and Russia military clash
2 articles
· 5h ago
78%
▼1¢
5h Russian attack on Ukraine’s Naftogaz gas facilities kills five, stalls ceasefire
6h Ukraine missile strike hits key Russian military electronics plant
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 6h ago
26%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 25% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 60% FLAT
6h Cargo ship attacked near Hormuz, escalating US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 7h ago
26%
▲1¢
✓ 27h Iran solidifies stance on Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
8 articles
Developing
26%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 74% FLAT
36m US to reduce military presence in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran ceasefire
✓ 21h Iran attacks US Navy, UAE oil sites as Hormuz tensions escalate
✓ 23h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
38m Securitize, Jump, JupiterExchange launch regulated onchain trading on Solana
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
43m US-Iran conflict fuels inflation, dims Fed rate cut prospects for 2026
5h Middle East tensions impact Fed rate cut likelihood, support higher oil prices
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
3 articles
Developing
26%
▼0¢
50m Iran seizes two ships, reducing Strait of Hormuz traffic amid tensions
✓ 22h US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush conducts operations in Arabian Sea
✓ 25h Iraq offers crude discounts amid Strait of Hormuz shipping risks
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
11%
▼0¢
59m Trump warns of military action over Iran peace proposal dissatisfaction
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
1h US sanctions Iranian currency exchanges, impacting oil trade with China
6h Thailand approves emergency borrowing amid US-Israel-Iran conflict
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
Developing
40%
▼0¢
1h Labour faces historic losses as Reform UK leads polls ahead of May 2026 elections
Likely NO
Romanian PM bolojan departure
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Romanian PM Bolojan likely to exit after government collapse
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Pentagon labels Anthropic a supply chain risk amid AI policy shift
5h Trump administration considers AI oversight, impacting Anthropic’s US deal
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h Russia launches massive missile, drone assault on Dnipro, injuring 30
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
99.7%
▼0¢
2h Ripple shares North Korea-linked threat data as crypto hacks evolve
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h Iran tests ceasefire limits with UAE attacks, maritime threats
✓ 23h Trump challenges War Powers Act as Iran conflict escalates
4h Israeli cities open shelters amid rising threat of Iranian attacks
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 38% FLAT
3h Iran leadership instability fuels regime change speculation amid command crisis
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 3h ago
26%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 63% FLAT
3h US establishes defensive umbrella over Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with Iran
4h Maersk ship transits Strait of Hormuz under US military escort amid tensions
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may 5
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
3h Ethereum outperforms S&P 500, seen as top wartime store of value
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
3 articles
· 4h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
4h US-Iran tensions drive rupee to record low, impact oil and Bitcoin markets
5h Iran missile strikes disrupt oil supply routes, boost WTI crude prices
7h Bitmine stakes $10.2B in Ethereum amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼0¢
4h Iran missile strike on US Navy escalates tensions, potential for US response
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 8
1 article
· 4h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
4h $226M in crypto short positions liquidated amid US-Iran-Israel tensions
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 58% FLAT
4h IRGC tightens control over Persian Gulf, impacting Strait of Hormuz transit
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 25h Spirit Airlines to cease operations after failed bailout talks
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
6h Australia raises interest rates amid global easing trend
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 4
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 4 100% FLAT
6h Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see $593M inflows amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 7h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
7h Iran threatens European bases amid rising geopolitical tensions