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3h Iran refuses US meeting as envoys visit Pakistan for talks
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
3h Iran refuses US meeting as envoys visit Pakistan for talks
▼ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
36% (was 40%, ▼4¢ in 3h)
NO ▲4¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 3h ago
36%
▼4¢
3h 4h Nobitex linked to sanctions evasion amid US-Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
Developing
18%
▼1¢
✓ 320m UAE intercepts Iranian missiles amid regional tensions with Israel
4h Iran tests ceasefire limits with UAE attacks, maritime threats
✓ 24h Trump challenges War Powers Act as Iran conflict escalates
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
7 articles
Developing
25%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 74% FLAT
✓ 31h US to reduce military presence in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran ceasefire
✓ 22h Iran attacks US Navy, UAE oil sites as Hormuz tensions escalate
✓ 24h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
3 articles
Developing
25%
▼1¢
1h Iran seizes two ships, reducing Strait of Hormuz traffic amid tensions
✓ 23h US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush conducts operations in Arabian Sea
✓ 26h Iraq offers crude discounts amid Strait of Hormuz shipping risks
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 4h ago
25%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 63% FLAT
4h US establishes defensive umbrella over Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with Iran
5h Maersk ship transits Strait of Hormuz under US military escort amid tensions
YES ▲1¢
Trump out as president
1 article
· 5h ago
18%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
5h Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
NO ▲1¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
· 6h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
6h IAEA engages Russia on Iran uranium amid hardline leadership shift
YES ▲1¢
NATO and Russia military clash
2 articles
· 6h ago
20%
▲1¢
6h Russian attack on Ukraine’s Naftogaz gas facilities kills five, stalls ceasefire
6h Ukraine missile strike hits key Russian military electronics plant
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in april 100% FLAT
25m Ethereum solidifies institutional role, price likely above $1,800 by May 5
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
33m Fed rate cuts unlikely in 2026 amid inflation concerns, markets suggest
1h US-Iran conflict fuels inflation, dims Fed rate cut prospects for 2026
6h Middle East tensions impact Fed rate cut likelihood, support higher oil prices
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
Developing
25%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
✓ 251m US and Bahrain push UN-backed action for Hormuz maritime coalition
Likely NO
US x Iran ceasefire extensions
1 article
Developing
12%
▼0¢
54m Pakistan mediates US-Iran ceasefire talks, sees progress
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
Developing
81%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 74% FLAT
58m US launches Project Freedom to secure Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
2h US sanctions Iranian currency exchanges, impacting oil trade with China
7h Thailand approves emergency borrowing amid US-Israel-Iran conflict
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Securitize, Jump, JupiterExchange launch regulated onchain trading on Solana
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
11%
▼0¢
1h Trump warns of military action over Iran peace proposal dissatisfaction
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 2h ago
40%
▼0¢
2h Labour faces historic losses as Reform UK leads polls ahead of May 2026 elections
Likely NO
Romanian PM bolojan departure
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 43h Romanian PM Bolojan likely to exit after government collapse
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Pentagon labels Anthropic a supply chain risk amid AI policy shift
6h Trump administration considers AI oversight, impacting Anthropic’s US deal
Likely YES
Bitcoin price predictions for may 9
1 article
Developing
100%
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10 1% FLAT
3m Bitcoin hits $80K amid US-Iran tensions, $68K by May 9 likely
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h Russia launches massive missile, drone assault on Dnipro, injuring 30
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
99.7%
▼0¢
3h Ripple shares North Korea-linked threat data as crypto hacks evolve
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 38% FLAT
4h Iran leadership instability fuels regime change speculation amid command crisis
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
1 article
· 4h ago
68%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 100% FLAT
✓ 34h Bitcoin inflows hit $117.8M amid US-Iran ceasefire talks
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may 5
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
4h Ethereum outperforms S&P 500, seen as top wartime store of value
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
· 5h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
5h US-Iran tensions drive rupee to record low, impact oil and Bitcoin markets
6h Iran missile strikes disrupt oil supply routes, boost WTI crude prices
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 5h ago
9%
▼0¢
5h Iran missile strike on US Navy escalates tensions, potential for US response
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 8
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
5h $226M in crypto short positions liquidated amid US-Iran-Israel tensions
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 5h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 58% FLAT
5h IRGC tightens control over Persian Gulf, impacting Strait of Hormuz transit
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 26h Spirit Airlines to cease operations after failed bailout talks
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
7h Australia raises interest rates amid global easing trend