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1h US launches Project Freedom to secure Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
1h US launches Project Freedom to secure Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
▼ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
78% (was 81%, ▼3¢ in 1h)
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit: 74% FLAT
NO ▲3¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
Developing
78%
▼3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 74% FLAT
1h 3h US sanctions Iranian currency exchanges, impacting oil trade with China
NO ▲2¢
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
Developing
17%
▼2¢
✓ 41h UAE intercepts Iranian missiles amid regional tensions with Israel
5h Iran tests ceasefire limits with UAE attacks, maritime threats
✓ 25h Trump challenges War Powers Act as Iran conflict escalates
NO ▲1¢
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
30%
▼1¢
⚡ XRP price predictions for may 5 100% FLAT
15m Ripple CEO confirms no IPO plans despite $13T in payments processed
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
Developing
14%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
36m Trump seeks to dismantle Iran’s atomic stockpile in Pakistan talks
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 9
1 article
Developing
67%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10 1% FLAT
1h Bitcoin hits $80K amid US-Iran tensions, $68K by May 9 likely
YES ▲1¢
US x Iran ceasefire extensions
1 article
Developing
13%
▲1¢
1h Pakistan mediates US-Iran ceasefire talks, sees progress
NO ▲1¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 4h ago
39%
▼1¢
4h Iran refuses US meeting as envoys visit Pakistan for talks
5h Nobitex linked to sanctions evasion amid US-Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
1 article
· 5h ago
67%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 8 100% FLAT
✓ 35h Bitcoin inflows hit $117.8M amid US-Iran ceasefire talks
NO ▲1¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
· 7h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
7h IAEA engages Russia on Iran uranium amid hardline leadership shift
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
10m UN resolution demands Iran halt ship attacks, illegal tolls in Strait of Hormuz
4h Pentagon labels Anthropic a supply chain risk amid AI policy shift
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 7% FLAT
13m Israel vows more destruction in Lebanon amid ongoing military operations
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
19m Trump expands Cuba sanctions, dims prospects for US-Iran nuclear deal
✓ 21h US and Bahrain push UN-backed action for Hormuz maritime coalition
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
1 article
Developing
17%
▼0¢
21m Trump administration declares end to hostilities with Iran, cites ceasefire
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
27m US gas prices hit $4.3 amid Iran conflict, Bitcoin outlook stable
6h US-Iran tensions drive rupee to record low, impact oil and Bitcoin markets
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
30m ECB June rate hike bets trimmed to 23 bps amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
35m Romanian ministry of defense condemns russian drone debris incident
4h Russia launches massive missile, drone assault on Dnipro, injuring 30
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
43m Iran conflict disrupts oil shipments, Brent crude hits $119 per barrel
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in april 100% FLAT
1h Ethereum solidifies institutional role, price likely above $1,800 by May 5
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
1h Fed rate cuts unlikely in 2026 amid inflation concerns, markets suggest
2h US-Iran conflict fuels inflation, dims Fed rate cut prospects for 2026
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
5 articles
· 2h ago
26%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 74% FLAT
✓ 32h US to reduce military presence in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran ceasefire
✓ 23h Iran attacks US Navy, UAE oil sites as Hormuz tensions escalate
✓ 25h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Securitize, Jump, JupiterExchange launch regulated onchain trading on Solana
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
2 articles
· 2h ago
26%
▼0¢
2h Iran seizes two ships, reducing Strait of Hormuz traffic amid tensions
✓ 24h US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush conducts operations in Arabian Sea
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
11%
▼0¢
2h Trump warns of military action over Iran peace proposal dissatisfaction
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 3h ago
40%
▼0¢
3h Labour faces historic losses as Reform UK leads polls ahead of May 2026 elections
Likely NO
Romanian PM bolojan departure
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 44h Romanian PM Bolojan likely to exit after government collapse
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
99.7%
▼0¢
4h Ripple shares North Korea-linked threat data as crypto hacks evolve
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 38% FLAT
5h Iran leadership instability fuels regime change speculation amid command crisis
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 5h ago
26%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 63% FLAT
5h US establishes defensive umbrella over Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with Iran
6h Maersk ship transits Strait of Hormuz under US military escort amid tensions
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may 5
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
5h Ethereum outperforms S&P 500, seen as top wartime store of value
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 6h ago
9%
▼0¢
6h Iran missile strike on US Navy escalates tensions, potential for US response
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 8
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
6h $226M in crypto short positions liquidated amid US-Iran-Israel tensions
Likely NO
Trump out as president
1 article
· 6h ago
17%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
6h Trump ends hostilities with Iran, reducing pressure on presidency
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 6h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 58% FLAT
6h IRGC tightens control over Persian Gulf, impacting Strait of Hormuz transit
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 27h Spirit Airlines to cease operations after failed bailout talks