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✓ 22h Trump confirms no vessels crossed Hormuz blockade amid US-Iran tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 22h Trump confirms no vessels crossed Hormuz blockade amid US-Iran tensions
▼ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
25% (was 28%, ▼3¢ in 2h)
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit: 82% FLAT
NO ▲3¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 2h ago
25%
▼3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 82% FLAT
✓ 22h 
NO ▲2¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
Developing
25%
▼2¢
5m Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
✓ 22h Trump dismisses Iranian threat, maintains Hormuz blockade stance
YES ▲1¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
Developing
40%
▲1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 37% FLAT
1h Trump warns Iran of swift action amid ongoing tensions
✓ 33h Israel vows more destruction in Lebanon amid ongoing military operations
NO ▲1¢
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 3h ago
30%
▼1¢
⚡ XRP price predictions for may 5 100% FLAT
3h Ripple CEO confirms no IPO plans despite $13T in payments processed
NO ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 3h ago
16%
▼1¢
3h Trump administration declares end to hostilities with Iran, cites ceasefire
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 3h ago
14%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
3h Trump seeks to dismantle Iran’s atomic stockpile in Pakistan talks
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 9
1 article
· 4h ago
67%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10 1% FLAT
4h Bitcoin hits $80K amid US-Iran tensions, $68K by May 9 likely
YES ▲1¢
US x Iran ceasefire extensions
1 article
· 4h ago
13%
▲1¢
4h Pakistan mediates US-Iran ceasefire talks, sees progress
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
2 articles
· 5h ago
25%
▼1¢
5h Iran seizes two ships, reducing Strait of Hormuz traffic amid tensions
✓ 27h US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush conducts operations in Arabian Sea
YES ▲1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 6h ago
13%
▲1¢
6h Trump warns of military action over Iran peace proposal dissatisfaction
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h US gas prices hit $4.3 amid Iran conflict, Bitcoin outlook stable
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h ECB June rate hike bets trimmed to 23 bps amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h Romanian ministry of defense condemns russian drone debris incident
7h Russia launches massive missile, drone assault on Dnipro, injuring 30
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
3h Iran conflict disrupts oil shipments, Brent crude hits $119 per barrel
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in april 100% FLAT
4h Ethereum solidifies institutional role, price likely above $1,800 by May 5
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
4h Fed rate cuts unlikely in 2026 amid inflation concerns, markets suggest
5h US-Iran conflict fuels inflation, dims Fed rate cut prospects for 2026
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 6h ago
40%
▼0¢
6h Labour faces historic losses as Reform UK leads polls ahead of May 2026 elections
Likely NO
Romanian PM bolojan departure
1 article
· 7h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 47h Romanian PM Bolojan likely to exit after government collapse
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
Developing
12%
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
just now Iran asserts permanent control over Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
2 articles
Developing
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
24m Iran’s economic turmoil deepens amid naval blockade and military actions
✓ 54h UAE intercepts Iranian missiles amid regional tensions with Israel
Likely NO
Trump conversations in april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
56m US forces capture Nicolás Maduro, confirming removal before 2027
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
Developing
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
1h Israel ramps up military operations in Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
4 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
1h Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal, maintains economic pressure
2h Middle East tensions drive WTI crude oil prices higher, impacting Fed rate cut odds
5h US launches Project Freedom to secure Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
✓ 21h Trump hints at US red lines amid rising Iran tensions
2h Iran’s military weakened amid US-Israel operations, Strait of Hormuz closed
Likely NO
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Trump comments on Hormuz boost US oil demand amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
2 articles
· 3h ago
11%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
3h Trump expands Cuba sanctions, dims prospects for US-Iran nuclear deal
✓ 24h US and Bahrain push UN-backed action for Hormuz maritime coalition
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
40%
2m Iran to dismantle US exploitation of Hormuz, says Khamenei
7h Iran refuses US meeting as envoys visit Pakistan for talks
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
✓ 21h Trump comments dampen US-Iran diplomatic meeting prospects
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
2 articles
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
✓ 22h MoonPay acquires DFlow in $100M deal to boost Solana infrastructure
5h Securitize, Jump, JupiterExchange launch regulated onchain trading on Solana
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
✓ 42h Trump suggests arming Iranians amid regime change discussions
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
3 articles
· 2h ago
13%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
2h US confirms ongoing military operations in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
✓ 35h US to reduce military presence in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran ceasefire
✓ 26h Iran attacks US Navy, UAE oil sites as Hormuz tensions escalate
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
3 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Anthropic CEO comments may impact Google’s AI model ranking by May
3h UN resolution demands Iran halt ship attacks, illegal tolls in Strait of Hormuz
7h Pentagon labels Anthropic a supply chain risk amid AI policy shift
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
99.7%
▼0¢
7h Ripple shares North Korea-linked threat data as crypto hacks evolve