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✓ 25h Trump confirms no vessels crossed Hormuz blockade amid US-Iran tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 25h Trump confirms no vessels crossed Hormuz blockade amid US-Iran tensions
▼ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
25% (was 28%, ▼3¢ in 5h)
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit: 82% FLAT
NO ▲3¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 5h ago
25%
▼3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 82% FLAT
✓ 25h 
YES ▲2¢
XRP price predictions for may
2 articles
· 2h ago
31%
▲2¢
⚡ XRP price predictions for may 5 100% FLAT
2h XRP sentiment hits two-year high with Rakuten Wallet integration
6h Ripple CEO confirms no IPO plans despite $13T in payments processed
NO ▲2¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 2h ago
25%
▼2¢
2h Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
✓ 25h Trump dismisses Iranian threat, maintains Hormuz blockade stance
NO ▲2¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 4h ago
37%
▼2¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 37% FLAT
4h Trump warns Iran of swift action amid ongoing tensions
✓ 36h Israel vows more destruction in Lebanon amid ongoing military operations
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
1 article
Developing
25%
▼1¢
27m US military escorts US ships through Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 6h ago
14%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
6h Trump seeks to dismantle Iran’s atomic stockpile in Pakistan talks
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 9
1 article
· 6h ago
67%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10 1% FLAT
6h Bitcoin hits $80K amid US-Iran tensions, $68K by May 9 likely
YES ▲1¢
US x Iran ceasefire extensions
1 article
· 7h ago
13%
▲1¢
7h Pakistan mediates US-Iran ceasefire talks, sees progress
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
10m API reports significant crude draw amid Hormuz tensions, oil eyes $90 by June
2h Nigeria crude supply shortfall may push oil prices to $90 by June
6h Iran conflict disrupts oil shipments, Brent crude hits $119 per barrel
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
40m US shifts to clear crypto regulations, boosting Bitcoin investor confidence
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 92% FLAT
49m Beijing blocks Meta’s $2B Manus deal amid US-China tensions
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
✓ 251m Iran denies involvement in UAE attack amid regional tensions
3h Iran’s economic turmoil deepens amid naval blockade and military actions
✓ 57h UAE intercepts Iranian missiles amid regional tensions with Israel
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
54m US-Iran talks focus on uranium enrichment amid diplomatic efforts
✓ 24h Trump comments dampen US-Iran diplomatic meeting prospects
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Securitize, Jump, Jupiter launch tokenized equities on Solana blockchain
✓ 24h MoonPay acquires DFlow in $100M deal to boost Solana infrastructure
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
2h Iran missile strikes UAE amid rising tensions in Strait of Hormuz
✓ 22h Trump declares Iran war ‘terminated’ amid airspace closure speculation
6h Trump administration declares end to hostilities with Iran, cites ceasefire
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Google Cloud, Solana launch pay-as-you-go AI system using stablecoins
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
· 2h ago
77%
▼0¢
2h Russian troop desertions strain efforts to capture Kostyantynivka
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
2h Iran asserts permanent control over Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Iran to dismantle US exploitation of Hormuz, says Khamenei
Likely NO
Trump conversations in april
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h US forces capture Nicolás Maduro, confirming removal before 2027
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 3h ago
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
3h Israel ramps up military operations in Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
· 4h ago
10%
▼0¢
4h Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal, maintains economic pressure
5h Middle East tensions drive WTI crude oil prices higher, impacting Fed rate cut odds
7h US launches Project Freedom to secure Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
✓ 24h Trump hints at US red lines amid rising Iran tensions
5h Iran’s military weakened amid US-Israel operations, Strait of Hormuz closed
Likely NO
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 24h Trump comments on Hormuz boost US oil demand amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
✓ 44h Trump suggests arming Iranians amid regime change discussions
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 5h ago
13%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
5h US confirms ongoing military operations in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
✓ 38h US to reduce military presence in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran ceasefire
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 25h Anthropic CEO comments may impact Google’s AI model ranking by May
5h UN resolution demands Iran halt ship attacks, illegal tolls in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
2 articles
· 6h ago
11%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
6h Trump expands Cuba sanctions, dims prospects for US-Iran nuclear deal
✓ 27h US and Bahrain push UN-backed action for Hormuz maritime coalition
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
6h US gas prices hit $4.3 amid Iran conflict, Bitcoin outlook stable
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
6h ECB June rate hike bets trimmed to 23 bps amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 6h ago
6%
▼0¢
6h Romanian ministry of defense condemns russian drone debris incident
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in april 100% FLAT
7h Ethereum solidifies institutional role, price likely above $1,800 by May 5
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
7h Fed rate cuts unlikely in 2026 amid inflation concerns, markets suggest