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5h Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
5h Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
▲ Bab el-mandeb strait closure
32% (was 27%, ▲5¢ in 5h)
YES ▲5¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 5h ago
32%
▲5¢
5h 
✓ 27h Trump dismisses Iranian threat, maintains Hormuz blockade stance
NO ▲3¢
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
Developing
7%
▼3¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
✓ 31h Iran labels UAE ‘Israeli proxy,’ warns of military action in Gulf region
✓ 23h Iran denies involvement in UAE attack amid regional tensions
✓ 25h Iran’s economic turmoil deepens amid naval blockade and military actions
YES ▲3¢
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 4h ago
32%
▲3¢
⚡ XRP price predictions for may 5 100% FLAT
4h XRP sentiment hits two-year high with Rakuten Wallet integration
NO ▲3¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 7h ago
36%
▼3¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 37% FLAT
7h Trump warns Iran of swift action amid ongoing tensions
YES ▲1¢
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
Developing
5%
▲1¢
26m Lula to discuss anti-cartel cooperation with Trump amid US-Brazil talks
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
32%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 66% FLAT
50m Iranian missile reportedly strikes cargo vessel in Strait of Hormuz
1h Trump announces pause in Project Freedom amid Hormuz blockade tensions
✓ 27h Trump confirms no vessels crossed Hormuz blockade amid US-Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 5h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
5h Iran asserts permanent control over Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran shipping agreement 11% FLAT
1m Iran faces international disapproval over Strait of Hormuz actions
5h Iran to dismantle US exploitation of Hormuz, says Khamenei
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
4m Strategy’s potential Bitcoin sale may impact $115K target in May
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
2 articles
Developing
77%
▼0¢
13m Ukraine boosts defenses with Palantir AI amid Russian conflict
4h Russian troop desertions strain efforts to capture Kostyantynivka
Likely NO
ChatGPT app store ranking
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
23m ChatGPT tops US Apple Store as GPT-5.5 Instant boosts downloads
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
3 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
24m Missile strike on cargo ship near Dubai raises Gulf tensions
2h Iran introduces permit system for Strait of Hormuz vessel transits
✓ 22h US military escorts US ships through Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
32m Trump dismisses gas price concerns amid Iran conflict escalation
Likely NO
Billions FDV after launch
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
49m Jump Crypto’s Firedancer upgrade boosts Solana network performance
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
57m US-Iran tensions ease, Bitcoin price above $66K likely by May 6
4h Google Cloud, Solana launch pay-as-you-go AI system using stablecoins
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
✓ 71h Trump suspends Hormuz operation amid Iran deal progress
7h US confirms ongoing military operations in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
✓ 81h WTI oil drops 2.5% as Trump pauses Project Freedom, impacting price forecasts
6h Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal, maintains economic pressure
7h Middle East tensions drive WTI crude oil prices higher, impacting Fed rate cut odds
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Anchorage Digital, J.P. Morgan partner on Solana stablecoin reserves
3h Securitize, Jump, Jupiter launch tokenized equities on Solana blockchain
✓ 37h MoonPay acquires DFlow in $100M deal to boost Solana infrastructure
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
3 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by december 2026 1% FLAT
2h US gains pre-release access to top AI models from Alphabet, Microsoft, xAI
✓ 28h Anthropic CEO comments may impact Google’s AI model ranking by May
8h UN resolution demands Iran halt ship attacks, illegal tolls in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h API reports significant crude draw amid Hormuz tensions, oil eyes $90 by June
4h Nigeria crude supply shortfall may push oil prices to $90 by June
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
3h US shifts to clear crypto regulations, boosting Bitcoin investor confidence
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 3h ago
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 92% FLAT
3h Beijing blocks Meta’s $2B Manus deal amid US-China tensions
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 3h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
3h US-Iran talks focus on uranium enrichment amid diplomatic efforts
✓ 26h Trump comments dampen US-Iran diplomatic meeting prospects
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
4h Iran missile strikes UAE amid rising tensions in Strait of Hormuz
✓ 24h Trump declares Iran war ‘terminated’ amid airspace closure speculation
Likely NO
Trump conversations in april
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
6h US forces capture Nicolás Maduro, confirming removal before 2027
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 6h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
6h Israel ramps up military operations in Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
2 articles
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
✓ 26h Trump hints at US red lines amid rising Iran tensions
7h Iran’s military weakened amid US-Israel operations, Strait of Hormuz closed
Likely NO
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 26h Trump comments on Hormuz boost US oil demand amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 7h ago
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
✓ 47h Trump suggests arming Iranians amid regime change discussions