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3h Strait of Hormuz blockade fuels WTI crude oil price surge concerns
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
3h Strait of Hormuz blockade fuels WTI crude oil price surge concerns
▼ Iran airspace closure
6% (was 7%, ▼1¢ in 3h)
NO ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
· 3h ago
6%
▼1¢
3h 3h USAF reduces presence in Europe, West Asia amid Iran tensions
6h Explosions reported in Iran’s Hormozgan province amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
30%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 6 0% FLAT
3h Strategy reports wider loss amid Bitcoin price slump, geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢
MicroStrategy Bitcoin sales timeline
1 article
· 4h ago
30%
▲1¢
✓ 54h Strategy may sell Bitcoin to cover STRC dividends, says Michael Saylor
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
2 articles
· 5h ago
67%
▼1¢
5h Neom port promotion signals shift from Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions
5h Iran introduces permit system for Strait of Hormuz vessel transit amid tensions
YES ▲1¢
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
· 6h ago
55%
▲1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 62% FLAT
✓ 36h Samsung hits $1T market cap amid AI chip demand surge
Likely NO
Sharjah secession from UAE
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h UAE exits OPEC amid Gulf tensions, impacting oil market dynamics
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h Trump, Xi to discuss Taiwan amid China’s military drills near island
5h China defies US sanctions on Iranian oil ahead of Trump’s Beijing visit
Likely NO
Billions FDV after launch
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Prophet debuts AI-powered prediction market with $10K capital tranche
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
12%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 12% FLAT
4h Iran rejects US demands amid ongoing tensions and economic blockade
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
· 4h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
4h Strategy reports $12.5B net loss, impacting Bitcoin sentiment for May 2026
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Iran strikes UAE as Ukraine expands Gulf security ties
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 5h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
✓ 45h Trump announces progress in US-Iran talks, pauses Project Freedom
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 3% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 61% FLAT
✓ 35h Trump pauses Project Freedom amid Hormuz blockade negotiations
Likely NO
Balance of power in 2026 midterms
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
6h VP Vance campaigns in Iowa as GOP fears grow for 2026 midterms
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
6h Middle East tensions, oil prices complicate Fed rate cut outlook for 2026
Likely YES
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
Developing
100%
3m Iran seeks comprehensive agreement with US amid diplomatic overtures
1h UAE marks armed forces’ 50th anniversary amid Iran tensions
✓ 22h Iran engages drones over Qeshm Island amid heightened military alertness
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
2 articles
Developing
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
6m Iran rejects US threats, leadership stability likely through 2026
3h Iran, China discuss ceasefire and Hormuz reopening amid US tensions
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
4 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 37% FLAT
10m Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid US-Iran blockades
✓ 32h Trump pauses US operation guiding vessels through Strait of Hormuz amid talks
3h Strait of Hormuz closure reroutes shipping, strains African port capacity
Likely NO
Israel airspace closure
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
24m Israel orders evacuation of 12 Lebanese villages amid military escalation
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 3% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 37% FLAT
✓ 225m CMA CGM vessel attacked in Strait of Hormuz, escalating regional tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 6 0% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 6 100% FLAT
44m Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see major inflows amid market uncertainty
4h BlackRock clients acquire $251M in Bitcoin amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
49m IDF strikes Hezbollah targets, impacting Israel withdrawal market sentiment
3h Israel bombs 21 Lebanese villages amid ceasefire, raising withdrawal concerns
Likely NO
Ethereum price above on may 6
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
56m Whale activity signals institutional interest in Ethereum as price holds above $1,800
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
3 articles
Developing
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
58m Iran warns UAE over US-Israel ties, peace deal odds drop
2h US suspends ‘Project Freedom’ to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
2h House Democrats urge Trump to acknowledge Israel’s nuclear program
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
4 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Dollar hits 30-year low as Trump hints at possible Iran deal
3h Iran conflict drives oil prices up, impacts Thailand inflation
5h Institutions drive Bitcoin past $80K, targeting $96K by June
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h OpenAI, Anthropic drive US cloud demand, boost Google stock outlook for April
Likely NO
Scotland parliamentary election winner
1 article
· 2h ago
69%
▼0¢
2h UK elections may test Starmer’s leadership amid Labour challenges
Likely NO
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
2h US shifts to defensive posture in Hormuz as ‘Operation Epic Fury’ ends
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
2h Poland holds interest rates steady amid Iran conflict-driven inflation pressures
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
3h Netanyahu’s West Bank annexation plan sparks political instability concerns
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs as AI chip stocks surge