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✓ 22h Trump pauses ‘Project Freedom’ in Hormuz amid Pakistan mediation efforts
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 22h Trump pauses ‘Project Freedom’ in Hormuz amid Pakistan mediation efforts
▼ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
49% (was 65%, ▼16¢ in 2h)
NO ▲6¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
3 articles
Developing
7%
▼6¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 7% FLAT
✓ 21h China urges reopening of Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
✓ 22h US-Iran talks remain stalled, no agreement on key issues
✓ 113h US and Iran near memorandum to end war, boost nuclear deal hopes
YES ▲5¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
2 articles
Developing
68%
▲5¢
⚡ Largest company by december 2026 1% FLAT
1h Samsung hits $1T market cap amid AI chip demand, challenges Nvidia
3h Nvidia faces increased competition in AI processor market, market share declines
NO ▲4¢
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
· 2h ago
7%
▼4¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 7% FLAT
2h US escorts ships through GPS-jammed Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
4h UAE intercepts Iranian missiles amid Gulf tensions over Project Freedom
✓ 24h Iran seeks comprehensive agreement with US amid diplomatic overtures
YES ▲4¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 5h ago
7%
▲4¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 3% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 37% FLAT
✓ 35h CMA CGM vessel attacked in Strait of Hormuz, escalating regional tensions
YES ▲2¢
Israel airspace closure
2 articles
Developing
3%
▲2¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 8% FLAT
1h Israel orders evacuations in Lebanon amid military escalation
4h Israel orders evacuation of 12 Lebanese villages amid military escalation
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
3 articles
Developing
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
1h Zelenskyy accuses Russia of rejecting Ukraine ceasefire proposal amid attacks
1h Pro-Kremlin lawyer criticizes Putin, highlighting rift in Russian power circles
✓ 24h Russia accused of ceasefire violation amid ongoing Ukraine conflict escalation
NO ▲1¢
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
0%
▼1¢
⚡ Solana price predictions for may 6 0% FLAT
1h Circle mints $750M USDC on Solana amid US-Iran ceasefire
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 2h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 10% FLAT
2h Iran considers sending enriched uranium to US amid negotiation talks
YES ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
7%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 4% FLAT
3h Iran denies involvement in Korean vessel incident amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
4h Next to raise prices up outside Europe amid Iran conflict costs
NO ▲1¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
4h Iran rejects US threats, leadership stability likely through 2026
NO ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 5h ago
2%
▼1¢
5h IDF strikes Hezbollah targets, impacting Israel withdrawal market sentiment
NO ▲1¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
3 articles
· 5h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
5h Iran warns UAE over US-Israel ties, peace deal odds drop
6h US suspends ‘Project Freedom’ to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
6h House Democrats urge Trump to acknowledge Israel’s nuclear program
YES ▲1¢
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
4%
▲1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
7h Poland holds interest rates steady amid Iran conflict-driven inflation pressures
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Meta platforms stock price predictions 100% FLAT
1h Alphabet and Meta stock predictions show strong support amid cloud growth
6h OpenAI, Anthropic drive US cloud demand, boost Google stock outlook for April
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
✓ 21h Bitcoin surges past $82K amid easing US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h US adopts pre-verification AI policy amid China competition
Likely NO
Russia NATO invasion
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 4% FLAT
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
2h Russian drones enter Romanian airspace, escalating NATO tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price prediction for may 6 0% FLAT
✓ 32h Bitcoin nears $82,000 as oil drops 6% on US-Iran peace talks hopes
5h Dollar hits 30-year low as Trump hints at possible Iran deal
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 4% FLAT
2h Poll shows Likud may fall below 20 seats without Netanyahu
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
3h Ukraine escalates drone strikes deep into Russia, targeting Moscow and beyond
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
4 articles
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 46% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 74% FLAT
3h Thousands of ships stranded as Trump claims US “winning” Hormuz blockade
3h US suspends Strait of Hormuz ship guidance plan, shipowners seek alternatives
4h Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid US-Iran blockades
Likely NO
Marco rubio press briefing statements
2 articles
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
3h Rubio’s Vatican mission complicated by Trump-Pope clash over Iran policy
7h US shifts to defensive posture in Hormuz as ‘Operation Epic Fury’ ends
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Spirit Airlines faces shutdown risk amid soaring jet fuel prices and flight cuts
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
✓ 23h China supplies drone parts to Iran, Russia despite US sanctions: WSJ
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 6
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 23h ECB signals potential 50+ bps rate cut for April 2026 amid stable wage growth
Likely NO
Ethereum price above on may 6
2 articles
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h BitMine buys 101,745 ETH for $238M, boosting institutional demand
5h Whale activity signals institutional interest in Ethereum as price holds above $1,800
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 6 0% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 6 100% FLAT
5h Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see major inflows amid market uncertainty
Likely NO
Scotland parliamentary election winner
1 article
· 6h ago
69%
▼0¢
6h UK elections may test Starmer’s leadership amid Labour challenges
Likely YES
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
3h The Devil Wears Prada 2 hits $90M-$100M opening weekend target