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✓ 25h Trump pauses ‘Project Freedom’ in Hormuz amid Pakistan mediation efforts
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 25h Trump pauses ‘Project Freedom’ in Hormuz amid Pakistan mediation efforts
▼ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
48% (was 65%, ▼17¢ in 5h)
YES ▲9¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
2 articles
· 4h ago
72%
▲9¢
⚡ Largest company by december 2026 1% FLAT
4h Samsung hits $1T market cap amid AI chip demand, challenges Nvidia
6h Nvidia faces increased competition in AI processor market, market share declines
NO ▲6¢
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 5h ago
5%
▼6¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 7% FLAT
5h US escorts ships through GPS-jammed Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
7h UAE intercepts Iranian missiles amid Gulf tensions over Project Freedom
✓ 27h Iran seeks comprehensive agreement with US amid diplomatic overtures
NO ▲2¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
Developing
3%
▼2¢
1h Iran airstrikes damage 228 US military targets in Middle East
YES ▲2¢
Israel airspace closure
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▲2¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 8% FLAT
4h Israel orders evacuations in Lebanon amid military escalation
8h Israel orders evacuation of 12 Lebanese villages amid military escalation
NO ▲2¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
7h Iran rejects US threats, leadership stability likely through 2026
YES ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 8h ago
5%
▲2¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 3% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 37% FLAT
✓ 38h CMA CGM vessel attacked in Strait of Hormuz, escalating regional tensions
NO ▲2¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 8h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
8h Iran warns UAE over US-Israel ties, peace deal odds drop
9h US suspends ‘Project Freedom’ to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
YES ▲1¢
WTI crude oil price predictions
1 article
Developing
39%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's visit to China 0% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 38% FLAT
54m Trump to confront Xi over Iran oil purchases amid US-China tensions
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
3 articles
· 4h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
4h Zelenskyy accuses Russia of rejecting Ukraine ceasefire proposal amid attacks
4h Pro-Kremlin lawyer criticizes Putin, highlighting rift in Russian power circles
✓ 27h Russia accused of ceasefire violation amid ongoing Ukraine conflict escalation
NO ▲1¢
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
▼1¢
⚡ Solana price predictions for may 6 0% FLAT
4h Circle mints $750M USDC on Solana amid US-Iran ceasefire
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 5h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 10% FLAT
5h Iran considers sending enriched uranium to US amid negotiation talks
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 7h ago
5%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 4% FLAT
7h Iran denies involvement in Korean vessel incident amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
7h Next to raise prices up outside Europe amid Iran conflict costs
NO ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 8h ago
2%
▼1¢
8h IDF strikes Hezbollah targets, impacting Israel withdrawal market sentiment
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
4 articles
Developing
48%
▼0¢
56m Iran seeks China’s mediation in US-Iran conflict over Strait of Hormuz
✓ 24h China urges reopening of Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
✓ 25h US-Iran talks remain stalled, no agreement on key issues
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
4 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
✓ 31h France, UK lead mission to secure Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
6h Thousands of ships stranded as Trump claims US “winning” Hormuz blockade
6h US suspends Strait of Hormuz ship guidance plan, shipowners seek alternatives
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 6
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil price predictions 1% FLAT
1h Russia’s oil tax revenues hit six-month high amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
2 articles
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Meta platforms stock price predictions 100% FLAT
4h Alphabet and Meta stock predictions show strong support amid cloud growth
9h OpenAI, Anthropic drive US cloud demand, boost Google stock outlook for April
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
✓ 24h Bitcoin surges past $82K amid easing US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h US adopts pre-verification AI policy amid China competition
Likely NO
Russia NATO invasion
1 article
· 5h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 4% FLAT
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
5h Russian drones enter Romanian airspace, escalating NATO tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price prediction for may 6 0% FLAT
✓ 35h Bitcoin nears $82,000 as oil drops 6% on US-Iran peace talks hopes
8h Dollar hits 30-year low as Trump hints at possible Iran deal
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
· 5h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 4% FLAT
5h Poll shows Likud may fall below 20 seats without Netanyahu
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 6h ago
4%
▼0¢
6h Ukraine escalates drone strikes deep into Russia, targeting Moscow and beyond
Likely NO
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 6h ago
4%
▼0¢
6h Rubio’s Vatican mission complicated by Trump-Pope clash over Iran policy
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 26h Spirit Airlines faces shutdown risk amid soaring jet fuel prices and flight cuts
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
✓ 26h China supplies drone parts to Iran, Russia despite US sanctions: WSJ
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 6
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 27h ECB signals potential 50+ bps rate cut for April 2026 amid stable wage growth
Likely NO
Ethereum price above on may 6
2 articles
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
7h BitMine buys 101,745 ETH for $238M, boosting institutional demand
8h Whale activity signals institutional interest in Ethereum as price holds above $1,800
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
1 article
· 8h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 6 0% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 6 100% FLAT
8h Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see major inflows amid market uncertainty
Likely YES
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
6h The Devil Wears Prada 2 hits $90M-$100M opening weekend target
Likely NO
Scotland parliamentary election winner
1 article
· 9h ago
69%
▼0¢
9h UK elections may test Starmer’s leadership amid Labour challenges