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✓ 26h Trump pauses ‘Project Freedom’ in Hormuz amid Pakistan mediation efforts
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 26h Trump pauses ‘Project Freedom’ in Hormuz amid Pakistan mediation efforts
▼ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
48% (was 65%, ▼17¢ in 6h)
YES ▲8¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
2 articles
· 5h ago
71%
▲8¢
⚡ Largest company by december 2026 1% FLAT
5h Samsung hits $1T market cap amid AI chip demand, challenges Nvidia
7h Nvidia faces increased competition in AI processor market, market share declines
NO ▲5¢
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 6h ago
6%
▼5¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 7% FLAT
6h US escorts ships through GPS-jammed Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
8h UAE intercepts Iranian missiles amid Gulf tensions over Project Freedom
✓ 28h Iran seeks comprehensive agreement with US amid diplomatic overtures
YES ▲4¢
WTI crude oil price predictions
1 article
Developing
42%
▲4¢
⚡ Trump's visit to China 0% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 38% FLAT
1h Trump to confront Xi over Iran oil purchases amid US-China tensions
YES ▲3¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 9h ago
6%
▲3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 3% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 37% FLAT
✓ 39h CMA CGM vessel attacked in Strait of Hormuz, escalating regional tensions
YES ▲2¢
Israel airspace closure
2 articles
· 5h ago
3%
▲2¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 8% FLAT
5h Israel orders evacuations in Lebanon amid military escalation
9h Israel orders evacuation of 12 Lebanese villages amid military escalation
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
4 articles
· 2h ago
6%
▲1¢
✓ 32h France, UK lead mission to secure Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
7h Thousands of ships stranded as Trump claims US “winning” Hormuz blockade
7h US suspends Strait of Hormuz ship guidance plan, shipowners seek alternatives
NO ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼1¢
2h Iran airstrikes damage 228 US military targets in Middle East
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
3 articles
· 5h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
5h Zelenskyy accuses Russia of rejecting Ukraine ceasefire proposal amid attacks
5h Pro-Kremlin lawyer criticizes Putin, highlighting rift in Russian power circles
✓ 28h Russia accused of ceasefire violation amid ongoing Ukraine conflict escalation
NO ▲1¢
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 5h ago
0%
▼1¢
⚡ Solana price predictions for may 6 0% FLAT
5h Circle mints $750M USDC on Solana amid US-Iran ceasefire
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 6h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 10% FLAT
6h Iran considers sending enriched uranium to US amid negotiation talks
NO ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 9h ago
2%
▼1¢
9h IDF strikes Hezbollah targets, impacting Israel withdrawal market sentiment
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
4 articles
Developing
48%
▼0¢
1h Iran seeks China’s mediation in US-Iran conflict over Strait of Hormuz
✓ 25h China urges reopening of Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
✓ 26h US-Iran talks remain stalled, no agreement on key issues
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 6
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil price predictions 1% FLAT
2h Russia’s oil tax revenues hit six-month high amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
2 articles
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Meta platforms stock price predictions 100% FLAT
5h Alphabet and Meta stock predictions show strong support amid cloud growth
10h OpenAI, Anthropic drive US cloud demand, boost Google stock outlook for April
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
✓ 25h Bitcoin surges past $82K amid easing US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h US adopts pre-verification AI policy amid China competition
Likely NO
Russia NATO invasion
1 article
· 6h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 4% FLAT
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
6h Russian drones enter Romanian airspace, escalating NATO tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price prediction for may 6 0% FLAT
✓ 36h Bitcoin nears $82,000 as oil drops 6% on US-Iran peace talks hopes
9h Dollar hits 30-year low as Trump hints at possible Iran deal
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
· 6h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 4% FLAT
6h Poll shows Likud may fall below 20 seats without Netanyahu
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 7h ago
4%
▼0¢
7h Ukraine escalates drone strikes deep into Russia, targeting Moscow and beyond
Likely NO
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 7h ago
4%
▼0¢
7h Rubio’s Vatican mission complicated by Trump-Pope clash over Iran policy
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 27h Spirit Airlines faces shutdown risk amid soaring jet fuel prices and flight cuts
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
✓ 27h China supplies drone parts to Iran, Russia despite US sanctions: WSJ
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 8h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 4% FLAT
8h Iran denies involvement in Korean vessel incident amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
8h Next to raise prices up outside Europe amid Iran conflict costs
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on may 6
1 article
· 8h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 28h ECB signals potential 50+ bps rate cut for April 2026 amid stable wage growth
Likely NO
Ethereum price above on may 6
2 articles
· 8h ago
100%
▼0¢
8h BitMine buys 101,745 ETH for $238M, boosting institutional demand
9h Whale activity signals institutional interest in Ethereum as price holds above $1,800
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 8h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
8h Iran rejects US threats, leadership stability likely through 2026
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
1 article
· 9h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 6 0% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price above on may 6 100% FLAT
9h Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see major inflows amid market uncertainty
Likely YES
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
7h The Devil Wears Prada 2 hits $90M-$100M opening weekend target
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 9h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against neighbors 100% FLAT
9h Iran warns UAE over US-Israel ties, peace deal odds drop
10h US suspends ‘Project Freedom’ to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
Likely NO
Scotland parliamentary election winner
1 article
· 10h ago
69%
▼0¢
10h UK elections may test Starmer’s leadership amid Labour challenges