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✓ 149h Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy losses in local elections
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 149h Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy losses in local elections
▼ Starmer out timing
27% (was 50%, ▼23¢ in 9h)
YES ▲14¢
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 1d ago
37%
▲14¢
✓ 51d Ripple completes pilot linking XRP Ledger with interbank settlement systems
NO ▲5¢
WTI crude oil price predictions
1 article
· 2d ago
33%
▼5¢
⚡ Trump's visit to China 0% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 38% FLAT
2d Trump to confront Xi over Iran oil purchases amid US-China tensions
NO ▲3¢
Epstein suicide note release
2 articles
· 11h ago
13%
▼3¢
11h Epstein note analysis sparks market interest for May release
✓ 141d Federal judge unseals Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged suicide note
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
· 1d ago
6%
▼2¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 16% FLAT
✓ 31d Trump claims US will secure enriched uranium from Iran
NO ▲1¢
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 2h ago
15%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 16% FLAT
✓ 92h Iran may control Strait of Hormuz, Rubio warns amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
4 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▲1¢
✓ 23h Iran nuclear sites attacked by US, Israel amid rising tensions
9h Israel launches airstrikes over Iran, escalating regional tensions
✓ 611h UAE counters Iranian air attack amid regional tensions
YES ▲1¢
2026 united kingdom local elections: party winner
1 article
· 3h ago
27%
▲1¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 26% FLAT
✓ 83h Reform UK gains 400 seats in 2026 local elections, Labour loses 260
YES ▲1¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 5h ago
25%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 42% FLAT
5h Iran war boosts profits for energy, banks, defense firms: BBC
1d Trump warns Iran of more attacks amid stalled peace talks
NO ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 10h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 72% FLAT
10h 1,500 ships trapped in Gulf amid US-Iran conflict, Hormuz traffic disrupted
NO ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 12h ago
6%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 30% FLAT
12h Kamala Harris criticizes Iran war amid US regime change push
Likely NO
Trump insults
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
11m Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
27m US-Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut prospects amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
9 articles
Developing
40%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 40% FLAT
✓ 342m Aramco and ADNOC resume oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz
2h US forces block over 70 tankers in Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict
3h UAE exits OPEC amid Gulf tensions, Strait of Hormuz risks rise
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
68%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 69% FLAT
✓ 81h US strikes Iranian tankers as UAE reports missile, drone attacks
✓ 613h US-Iran tensions rise as military exchange escalates in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Israel maintains military presence in Lebanon amid Hezbollah conflict
✓ 29h Israeli army warns six Lebanese villages amid operations against Hezbollah
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
3 articles
· 2h ago
94%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 94% FLAT
2h Trump to meet Xi in Beijing amid US-Iran tensions, cruise virus concerns downplayed
3h Trump to visit China by May 31 with tech CEOs, Boeing deal possible
✓ 314h Trump confirms China visit for May 14-15 amid diplomatic tensions
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 69% FLAT
✓ 32h US blocks 70 tankers, impacting Iran oil exports worth $13B
2d Iran seeks China’s mediation in US-Iran conflict over Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
✓ 62h US unemployment steady, Fed rate cut unlikely by June 2026
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
2h Trump warns Iran of consequences as peace deal confidence wanes
✓ 811h Oil prices jump as US, Iran trade fire in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
2 articles
· 4h ago
28%
▼0¢
4h Powell likely to remain Fed chair until term ends in 2026 amid Warsh transition
1d Jerome Powell to stay on Fed board despite Trump legal challenges
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
2 articles
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 3% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
✓ 46h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz escalation
✓ 61d US, Iran near agreement to end conflict with one-page memorandum
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 6h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
6h Operation Epic Fury targets Iran, Khamenei assassination raises leadership change odds
Likely NO
Control of house in 2026 midterm elections
1 article
· 7h ago
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump insults 92% FLAT
7h Trump demands charges against Jeffries for ‘maximum warfare’ rhetoric
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
Developing
40%
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
2m Iran to make Strait of Hormuz restrictions permanent amid US tensions
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
4 articles
Developing
2%
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 40% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 68% FLAT
✓ 23m Iran makes Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions permanent amid US tensions
✓ 413h 20,000 seafarers stranded as US-Iran talks stall over Strait of Hormuz closure
✓ 513h US strikes Iranian targets amid ongoing Trump-led negotiations