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✓ 1411h Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy losses in local elections
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 1411h Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy losses in local elections
▼ Starmer out timing
24% (was 50%, ▼26¢ in 11h)
YES ▲6¢
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 1d ago
23%
▲6¢
✓ 51d Ripple completes pilot linking XRP Ledger with interbank settlement systems
NO ▲2¢
2026 united kingdom local elections: party winner
1 article
· 5h ago
24%
▼2¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 26% FLAT
✓ 115h Reform UK gains 400 seats in 2026 local elections, Labour loses 260
YES ▲2¢
Control of house in 2026 midterm elections
1 article
· 8h ago
95%
▲2¢
⚡ Trump insults 92% FLAT
8h Trump demands charges against Jeffries for ‘maximum warfare’ rhetoric
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
· 1d ago
6%
▼2¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 16% FLAT
✓ 31d Trump claims US will secure enriched uranium from Iran
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
Developing
2%
▼1¢
1h US-Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut prospects amid inflation concerns
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
✓ 63h US unemployment steady, Fed rate cut unlikely by June 2026
NO ▲1¢
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 4h ago
15%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 16% FLAT
✓ 94h Iran may control Strait of Hormuz, Rubio warns amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 6h ago
25%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 42% FLAT
6h Iran war boosts profits for energy, banks, defense firms: BBC
1d Trump warns Iran of more attacks amid stalled peace talks
NO ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 11h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 72% FLAT
11h 1,500 ships trapped in Gulf amid US-Iran conflict, Hormuz traffic disrupted
YES ▲1¢
Epstein suicide note release
2 articles
· 12h ago
17%
▲1¢
12h Epstein note analysis sparks market interest for May release
✓ 141d Federal judge unseals Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged suicide note
NO ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 14h ago
6%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 30% FLAT
14h Kamala Harris criticizes Iran war amid US regime change push
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
10 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 39% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
8m US forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement
✓ 32h Aramco and ADNOC resume oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz
3h US forces block over 70 tankers in Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
3 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 67% FLAT
13m Clashes reported between US, Iranian forces near Strait of Hormuz
✓ 112h US strikes Iranian tankers as UAE reports missile, drone attacks
✓ 615h US-Iran tensions rise as military exchange escalates in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 17% FLAT
57m Iran refuses to concede on uranium, defying US demands amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 10% FLAT
1h Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa amid escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict
✓ 47h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz escalation
✓ 61d US, Iran near agreement to end conflict with one-page memorandum
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
1h Iran to make Strait of Hormuz restrictions permanent amid US tensions
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
3 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 40% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 68% FLAT
✓ 41h Iran makes Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions permanent amid US tensions
✓ 414h 20,000 seafarers stranded as US-Iran talks stall over Strait of Hormuz closure
✓ 514h US strikes Iranian targets amid ongoing Trump-led negotiations
Likely NO
Trump insults
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Israel maintains military presence in Lebanon amid Hezbollah conflict
✓ 210h Israeli army warns six Lebanese villages amid operations against Hezbollah
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
3 articles
· 3h ago
94%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 94% FLAT
3h Trump to meet Xi in Beijing amid US-Iran tensions, cruise virus concerns downplayed
4h Trump to visit China by May 31 with tech CEOs, Boeing deal possible
✓ 315h Trump confirms China visit for May 14-15 amid diplomatic tensions
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 3h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 69% FLAT
✓ 43h US blocks 70 tankers, impacting Iran oil exports worth $13B
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 4h ago
17%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
4h Trump warns Iran of consequences as peace deal confidence wanes
✓ 813h Oil prices jump as US, Iran trade fire in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
4 articles
· 5h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 25h Iran nuclear sites attacked by US, Israel amid rising tensions
10h Israel launches airstrikes over Iran, escalating regional tensions
✓ 612h UAE counters Iranian air attack amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 5h ago
28%
▼0¢
5h Powell likely to remain Fed chair until term ends in 2026 amid Warsh transition
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 8h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
8h Operation Epic Fury targets Iran, Khamenei assassination raises leadership change odds