Earn with Nexo
2h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
2h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
▼ Trump insults
65% (was 93%, ▼28¢ in 2h)
NO ▲28¢
Control of house in 2026 midterm elections
1 article
· 9h ago
65%
▼28¢
⚡ Trump insults 92% FLAT
9h Trump demands charges against Jeffries for ‘maximum warfare’ rhetoric
NO ▲16¢
Epstein suicide note release
2 articles
· 13h ago
10%
▼16¢
13h Epstein note analysis sparks market interest for May release
✓ 141d Federal judge unseals Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged suicide note
NO ▲4¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 6h ago
24%
▼4¢
6h Powell likely to remain Fed chair until term ends in 2026 amid Warsh transition
NO ▲3¢
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 5h ago
13%
▼3¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 16% FLAT
TW✓ 105h Iran may control Strait of Hormuz, Rubio warns amid US-Iran tensions
NO ▲3¢
2026 united kingdom local elections: party winner
1 article
· 6h ago
23%
▼3¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 26% FLAT
✓ 116h Reform UK gains 400 seats in 2026 local elections, Labour loses 260
YES ▲1¢
Trump's visit to China
3 articles
· 4h ago
95%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 94% FLAT
4h Trump to meet Xi in Beijing amid US-Iran tensions, cruise virus concerns downplayed
5h Trump to visit China by May 31 with tech CEOs, Boeing deal possible
✓ 316h Trump confirms China visit for May 14-15 amid diplomatic tensions
NO ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 4h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 69% FLAT
✓ 54h US blocks 70 tankers, impacting Iran oil exports worth $13B
YES ▲1¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 8h ago
25%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 42% FLAT
8h Iran war boosts profits for energy, banks, defense firms: BBC
1d Trump warns Iran of more attacks amid stalled peace talks
NO ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 12h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 72% FLAT
12h 1,500 ships trapped in Gulf amid US-Iran conflict, Hormuz traffic disrupted
NO ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 15h ago
6%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 30% FLAT
15h Kamala Harris criticizes Iran war amid US regime change push
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 9 100% FLAT
19m 24 major financial institutions integrate Bitcoin services, boosting adoption
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
31m Iran launches military strikes on UAE, escalating regional tensions
2h Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa amid escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict
✓ 48h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz escalation
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
Developing
36%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 36% FLAT
⚡ Trump's agreement on Iranian demands by may 32% FLAT
1h Trump pauses Project Freedom, signals shift to diplomacy with Iran
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
9 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 39% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
1h US forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement
✓ 33h Aramco and ADNOC resume oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz
4h US forces block over 70 tankers in Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
3 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 67% FLAT
✓ 21h Clashes reported between US, Iranian forces near Strait of Hormuz
✓ 113h US strikes Iranian tankers as UAE reports missile, drone attacks
✓ 616h US-Iran tensions rise as military exchange escalates in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 17% FLAT
2h Iran refuses to concede on uranium, defying US demands amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
2h Iran to make Strait of Hormuz restrictions permanent amid US tensions
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
3 articles
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 40% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 68% FLAT
✓ 42h Iran makes Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions permanent amid US tensions
✓ 415h 20,000 seafarers stranded as US-Iran talks stall over Strait of Hormuz closure
✓ 515h US strikes Iranian targets amid ongoing Trump-led negotiations
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h US-Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut prospects amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 4h ago
1%
▼0¢
✓ 24h Israel maintains military presence in Lebanon amid Hezbollah conflict
✓ 211h Israeli army warns six Lebanese villages amid operations against Hezbollah
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
✓ 74h US unemployment steady, Fed rate cut unlikely by June 2026
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 5h ago
17%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
5h Trump warns Iran of consequences as peace deal confidence wanes
✓ 814h Oil prices jump as US, Iran trade fire in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
4 articles
· 6h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 26h Iran nuclear sites attacked by US, Israel amid rising tensions
11h Israel launches airstrikes over Iran, escalating regional tensions
✓ 613h UAE counters Iranian air attack amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 9h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
9h Operation Epic Fury targets Iran, Khamenei assassination raises leadership change odds
Likely YES
Starmer out timing
2 articles
Developing
21%
4m Keir Starmer faces leadership pressure after UK election losses
✓ 1412h Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy losses in local elections