Earn with Nexo
4h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
4h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
▼ Trump insults
70% (was 93%, ▼23¢ in 4h)
NO ▲23¢
Control of house in 2026 midterm elections
1 article
· 11h ago
70%
▼23¢
⚡ Trump insults 92% FLAT
11h Trump demands charges against Jeffries for ‘maximum warfare’ rhetoric
NO ▲12¢
Epstein suicide note release
1 article
· 15h ago
14%
▼12¢
15h Epstein note analysis sparks market interest for May release
NO ▲8¢
2026 united kingdom local elections: party winner
1 article
· 7h ago
18%
▼8¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 26% FLAT
✓ 117h Reform UK gains 400 seats in 2026 local elections, Labour loses 260
NO ▲7¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
Developing
19%
▼7¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 52% FLAT
✓ 925m Russia, Ukraine agree to three-day ceasefire with prisoner swap
NO ▲5¢
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 6h ago
11%
▼5¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 16% FLAT
TW✓ 126h Iran may control Strait of Hormuz, Rubio warns amid US-Iran tensions
NO ▲4¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 8h ago
24%
▼4¢
8h Powell likely to remain Fed chair until term ends in 2026 amid Warsh transition
NO ▲3¢
Starmer out timing
2 articles
Developing
18%
▼3¢
1h Keir Starmer faces leadership pressure after UK election losses
✓ 1413h Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy losses in local elections
NO ▲3¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 6h ago
5%
▼3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 69% FLAT
✓ 66h US blocks 70 tankers, impacting Iran oil exports worth $13B
YES ▲1¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
37%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 36% FLAT
⚡ Trump's agreement on Iranian demands by may 32% FLAT
2h Trump pauses Project Freedom, signals shift to diplomacy with Iran
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
3 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 67% FLAT
✓ 42h Clashes reported between US, Iranian forces near Strait of Hormuz
✓ 135h US strikes Iranian tankers as UAE reports missile, drone attacks
✓ 617h US-Iran tensions rise as military exchange escalates in Strait of Hormuz
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
3h Iran to make Strait of Hormuz restrictions permanent amid US tensions
YES ▲1¢
Trump's visit to China
3 articles
· 6h ago
95%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 94% FLAT
6h Trump to meet Xi in Beijing amid US-Iran tensions, cruise virus concerns downplayed
7h Trump to visit China by May 31 with tech CEOs, Boeing deal possible
✓ 318h Trump confirms China visit for May 14-15 amid diplomatic tensions
YES ▲1¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 9h ago
25%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 42% FLAT
9h Iran war boosts profits for energy, banks, defense firms: BBC
1d Trump warns Iran of more attacks amid stalled peace talks
NO ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 16h ago
6%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 30% FLAT
16h Kamala Harris criticizes Iran war amid US regime change push
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
8 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
15m China confirms attack on oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions
✓ 32h US forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement
✓ 34h Aramco and ADNOC resume oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
4 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 38% FLAT
56m Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts global jet fuel supply, Europe faces shortages
✓ 44h Iran makes Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions permanent amid US tensions
✓ 417h 20,000 seafarers stranded as US-Iran talks stall over Strait of Hormuz closure
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 9 100% FLAT
1h 24 major financial institutions integrate Bitcoin services, boosting adoption
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
1h Iran launches military strikes on UAE, escalating regional tensions
✓ 23h Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa amid escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict
✓ 410h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz escalation
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 17% FLAT
✓ 23h Iran refuses to concede on uranium, defying US demands amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
4h US-Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut prospects amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 5h ago
1%
▼0¢
✓ 25h Israel maintains military presence in Lebanon amid Hezbollah conflict
✓ 213h Israeli army warns six Lebanese villages amid operations against Hezbollah
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
✓ 86h US unemployment steady, Fed rate cut unlikely by June 2026
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 6h ago
17%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
6h Trump warns Iran of consequences as peace deal confidence wanes
✓ 815h Oil prices jump as US, Iran trade fire in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
4 articles
· 7h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 27h Iran nuclear sites attacked by US, Israel amid rising tensions
12h Israel launches airstrikes over Iran, escalating regional tensions
✓ 614h UAE counters Iranian air attack amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 10h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
10h Operation Epic Fury targets Iran, Khamenei assassination raises leadership change odds
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 13h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 72% FLAT
13h 1,500 ships trapped in Gulf amid US-Iran conflict, Hormuz traffic disrupted