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5h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
5h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
▼ Trump insults
74% (was 93%, ▼19¢ in 5h)
NO ▲19¢
Control of house in 2026 midterm elections
1 article
· 12h ago
74%
▼19¢
⚡ Trump insults 92% FLAT
12h Trump demands charges against Jeffries for ‘maximum warfare’ rhetoric
NO ▲9¢
Epstein suicide note release
1 article
· 16h ago
17%
▼9¢
16h Epstein note analysis sparks market interest for May release
NO ▲8¢
2026 united kingdom local elections: party winner
1 article
· 9h ago
18%
▼8¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 26% FLAT
✓ 119h Reform UK gains 400 seats in 2026 local elections, Labour loses 260
NO ▲4¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 7h ago
4%
▼4¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 69% FLAT
✓ 67h US blocks 70 tankers, impacting Iran oil exports worth $13B
YES ▲4¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 10h ago
28%
▲4¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 42% FLAT
10h Iran war boosts profits for energy, banks, defense firms: BBC
NO ▲3¢
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 7h ago
13%
▼3¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 16% FLAT
TW✓ 127h Iran may control Strait of Hormuz, Rubio warns amid US-Iran tensions
NO ▲3¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 9h ago
25%
▼3¢
9h Powell likely to remain Fed chair until term ends in 2026 amid Warsh transition
YES ▲2¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
38%
▲2¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 36% FLAT
⚡ Trump's agreement on Iranian demands by may 32% FLAT
3h Trump pauses Project Freedom, signals shift to diplomacy with Iran
NO ▲1¢
Starmer out timing
3 articles
Developing
18%
▼1¢
53m Labour faces leadership questions after local election losses
2h Keir Starmer faces leadership pressure after UK election losses
✓ 1414h Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy losses in local elections
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil price predictions
1 article
Developing
3%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
1h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply amid tensions
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
4 articles
Developing
22%
▼1¢
⚡ Potential strike on Iran by june 4% FLAT
✓ 31h Iran claims strikes on US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 53h Clashes reported between US, Iranian forces near Strait of Hormuz
✓ 136h US strikes Iranian tankers as UAE reports missile, drone attacks
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
Developing
25%
▼1¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 52% FLAT
✓ 231h Russia, Ukraine agree to three-day ceasefire with prisoner swap
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
5h Iran to make Strait of Hormuz restrictions permanent amid US tensions
YES ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 7h ago
4%
▲1¢
✓ 27h Israel maintains military presence in Lebanon amid Hezbollah conflict
✓ 214h Israeli army warns six Lebanese villages amid operations against Hezbollah
YES ▲1¢
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
· 7h ago
95%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 94% FLAT
7h Trump to meet Xi in Beijing amid US-Iran tensions, cruise virus concerns downplayed
8h Trump to visit China by May 31 with tech CEOs, Boeing deal possible
NO ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 17h ago
6%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 30% FLAT
17h Kamala Harris criticizes Iran war amid US regime change push
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
7 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
1h China confirms attack on oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions
✓ 53h US forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement
✓ 35h Aramco and ADNOC resume oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
4 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 38% FLAT
2h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts global jet fuel supply, Europe faces shortages
✓ 45h Iran makes Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions permanent amid US tensions
✓ 418h 20,000 seafarers stranded as US-Iran talks stall over Strait of Hormuz closure
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 9 100% FLAT
2h 24 major financial institutions integrate Bitcoin services, boosting adoption
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
3h Iran launches military strikes on UAE, escalating regional tensions
✓ 35h Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa amid escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict
✓ 411h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz escalation
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 17% FLAT
✓ 34h Iran refuses to concede on uranium, defying US demands amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
5h US-Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut prospects amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
✓ 87h US unemployment steady, Fed rate cut unlikely by June 2026
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 8h ago
17%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
8h Trump warns Iran of consequences as peace deal confidence wanes
✓ 816h Oil prices jump as US, Iran trade fire in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
4 articles
· 9h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 29h Iran nuclear sites attacked by US, Israel amid rising tensions
14h Israel launches airstrikes over Iran, escalating regional tensions
✓ 616h UAE counters Iranian air attack amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 12h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
12h Operation Epic Fury targets Iran, Khamenei assassination raises leadership change odds
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 15h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 72% FLAT
15h 1,500 ships trapped in Gulf amid US-Iran conflict, Hormuz traffic disrupted