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13h Trump demands charges against Jeffries for ‘maximum warfare’ rhetoric
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
13h Trump demands charges against Jeffries for ‘maximum warfare’ rhetoric
▼ Control of house in 2026 midterm elections
67% (was 93%, ▼26¢ in 13h)
⚡ Trump insults: 92% FLAT
NO ▲26¢
Control of house in 2026 midterm elections
1 article
· 13h ago
67%
▼26¢
⚡ Trump insults 92% FLAT
13h 
NO ▲9¢
Epstein suicide note release
1 article
· 17h ago
17%
▼9¢
17h Epstein note analysis sparks market interest for May release
NO ▲8¢
2026 united kingdom local elections: party winner
1 article
· 10h ago
18%
▼8¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 26% FLAT
✓ 1110h Reform UK gains 400 seats in 2026 local elections, Labour loses 260
YES ▲4¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
40%
▲4¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 36% FLAT
⚡ Trump's agreement on Iranian demands by may 32% FLAT
4h Trump pauses Project Freedom, signals shift to diplomacy with Iran
NO ▲4¢
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 8h ago
12%
▼4¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 16% FLAT
TW✓ 128h Iran may control Strait of Hormuz, Rubio warns amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲3¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 11h ago
27%
▲3¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 42% FLAT
11h Iran war boosts profits for energy, banks, defense firms: BBC
NO ▲2¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 10h ago
26%
▼2¢
10h Powell likely to remain Fed chair until term ends in 2026 amid Warsh transition
YES ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
41%
▲1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 25% FLAT
✓ 21h US and Iran may resume talks in Islamabad next week: WSJ
✓ 68h US blocks 70 tankers, impacting Iran oil exports worth $13B
YES ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
Developing
5%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
1h Mojtaba Khamenei injured in attack, raising Iran leadership change concerns
16h 1,500 ships trapped in Gulf amid US-Iran conflict, Hormuz traffic disrupted
NO ▲1¢
Starmer out timing
3 articles
· 2h ago
18%
▼1¢
2h Labour faces leadership questions after local election losses
✓ 23h Keir Starmer faces leadership pressure after UK election losses
✓ 1416h Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy losses in local elections
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
7 articles
· 2h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
2h China confirms attack on oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions
✓ 65h US forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement
✓ 37h Aramco and ADNOC resume oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
25%
▼1¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 52% FLAT
✓ 262h Russia, Ukraine agree to three-day ceasefire with prisoner swap
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
2 articles
· 3h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 38% FLAT
3h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts global jet fuel supply, Europe faces shortages
✓ 46h Iran makes Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions permanent amid US tensions
YES ▲1¢
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
· 8h ago
95%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 94% FLAT
8h Trump to meet Xi in Beijing amid US-Iran tensions, cruise virus concerns downplayed
9h Trump to visit China by May 31 with tech CEOs, Boeing deal possible
NO ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
· 10h ago
1%
▼1¢
✓ 210h Iran nuclear sites attacked by US, Israel amid rising tensions
15h Israel launches airstrikes over Iran, escalating regional tensions
✓ 617h UAE counters Iranian air attack amid regional tensions
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 9h ago
17%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
9h Trump warns Iran of consequences as peace deal confidence wanes
✓ 818h Oil prices jump as US, Iran trade fire in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 13h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
13h Operation Epic Fury targets Iran, Khamenei assassination raises leadership change odds
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
Developing
40%
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 36% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
1m Iran likens Strait of Hormuz control to nuclear weapon in strategic stance
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price predictions
2 articles
Developing
40%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 56% FLAT
15m JPMorgan warns $5 gas likely as Iran war disrupts oil supply
2h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply amid tensions
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
4 articles
Developing
22%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 37% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
44m Trump prioritizes reopening Strait of Hormuz amid Iran conflict
✓ 42h Iran claims strikes on US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 55h Clashes reported between US, Iranian forces near Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 9 100% FLAT
4h 24 major financial institutions integrate Bitcoin services, boosting adoption
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
4h Iran launches military strikes on UAE, escalating regional tensions
✓ 46h Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa amid escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict
✓ 412h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz escalation
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 5h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 17% FLAT
✓ 45h Iran refuses to concede on uranium, defying US demands amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 6h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
6h Iran to make Strait of Hormuz restrictions permanent amid US tensions
Likely NO
Trump insults
1 article
· 6h ago
1%
▼0¢
6h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
6h US-Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut prospects amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 8h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 28h Israel maintains military presence in Lebanon amid Hezbollah conflict
✓ 215h Israeli army warns six Lebanese villages amid operations against Hezbollah
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 8h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
✓ 88h US unemployment steady, Fed rate cut unlikely by June 2026