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✓ 1112h Reform UK gains 400 seats in 2026 local elections, Labour loses 260
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 1112h Reform UK gains 400 seats in 2026 local elections, Labour loses 260
▼ 2026 united kingdom local elections: party winner
18% (was 26%, ▼8¢ in 12h)
⚡ Starmer out timing: 26% FLAT
NO ▲8¢
2026 united kingdom local elections: party winner
1 article
· 12h ago
18%
▼8¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 26% FLAT
✓ 1112h 
YES ▲7¢
Trump insults
1 article
· 9h ago
100%
▲7¢
9h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
NO ▲7¢
Iran airspace closure
2 articles
· 12h ago
27%
▼7¢
✓ 212h Iran nuclear sites attacked by US, Israel amid rising tensions
17h Israel launches airstrikes over Iran, escalating regional tensions
YES ▲7¢
Control of house in 2026 midterm elections
1 article
· 16h ago
100%
▲7¢
⚡ Trump insults 92% FLAT
16h Trump demands charges against Jeffries for ‘maximum warfare’ rhetoric
YES ▲4¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 7h ago
40%
▲4¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 36% FLAT
⚡ Trump's agreement on Iranian demands by may 32% FLAT
✓ 27h Trump pauses Project Freedom, signals shift to diplomacy with Iran
NO ▲4¢
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 11h ago
12%
▼4¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 16% FLAT
TW✓ 1211h Iran may control Strait of Hormuz, Rubio warns amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲4¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 14h ago
28%
▲4¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 42% FLAT
14h Iran war boosts profits for energy, banks, defense firms: BBC
YES ▲2¢
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
· 10h ago
96%
▲2¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 94% FLAT
10h Trump to meet Xi in Beijing amid US-Iran tensions, cruise virus concerns downplayed
12h Trump to visit China by May 31 with tech CEOs, Boeing deal possible
NO ▲2¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 12h ago
26%
▼2¢
12h Powell likely to remain Fed chair until term ends in 2026 amid Warsh transition
YES ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 3h ago
41%
▲1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 25% FLAT
✓ 53h US and Iran may resume talks in Islamabad next week: WSJ
✓ 611h US blocks 70 tankers, impacting Iran oil exports worth $13B
YES ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 3h ago
5%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
3h Mojtaba Khamenei injured in attack, raising Iran leadership change concerns
18h 1,500 ships trapped in Gulf amid US-Iran conflict, Hormuz traffic disrupted
NO ▲1¢
Starmer out timing
3 articles
· 4h ago
18%
▼1¢
4h Labour faces leadership questions after local election losses
✓ 36h Keir Starmer faces leadership pressure after UK election losses
✓ 1418h Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy losses in local elections
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
6 articles
· 5h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
5h China confirms attack on oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions
✓ 77h US forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement
✓ 39h Aramco and ADNOC resume oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
25%
▼1¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 52% FLAT
✓ 295h Russia, Ukraine agree to three-day ceasefire with prisoner swap
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
2 articles
· 5h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 38% FLAT
5h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts global jet fuel supply, Europe faces shortages
✓ 48h Iran makes Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions permanent amid US tensions
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 9h ago
2%
▼1¢
9h US-Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut prospects amid inflation concerns
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 11h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
✓ 811h US unemployment steady, Fed rate cut unlikely by June 2026
Likely NO
New congressional maps in midterms
1 article
Developing
78%
▼0¢
6m GOP pushes mid-decade redistricting in Southern states after Supreme Court ruling
Likely NO
Next prime minister of denmark
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
15m Troels Lund Poulsen tasked with forming Danish government after Frederiksen’s failure
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 21% FLAT
✓ 72h US sanctions 10 for aiding Iran’s weapons sector amid rising tensions
11h Trump warns Iran of consequences as peace deal confidence wanes
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high predictions 2% FLAT
2h Bitcoin holds above $80,000 amid SEC support and geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 2h ago
36%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 36% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
✓ 22h Iran likens Strait of Hormuz control to nuclear weapon in strategic stance
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price predictions
2 articles
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 56% FLAT
2h JPMorgan warns $5 gas likely as Iran war disrupts oil supply
4h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply amid tensions
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
4 articles
· 3h ago
22%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 37% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 63h Trump prioritizes reopening Strait of Hormuz amid Iran conflict
✓ 64h Iran claims strikes on US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 57h Clashes reported between US, Iranian forces near Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 9 100% FLAT
6h 24 major financial institutions integrate Bitcoin services, boosting adoption
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
· 6h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 16% FLAT
6h Iran launches military strikes on UAE, escalating regional tensions
✓ 48h Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa amid escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict
✓ 414h Iran attacks US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz escalation
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 8h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 17% FLAT
✓ 48h Iran refuses to concede on uranium, defying US demands amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 8h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
8h Iran to make Strait of Hormuz restrictions permanent amid US tensions
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 10h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 210h Israel maintains military presence in Lebanon amid Hezbollah conflict
✓ 217h Israeli army warns six Lebanese villages amid operations against Hezbollah
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 15h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
15h Operation Epic Fury targets Iran, Khamenei assassination raises leadership change odds