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55m US intercepts sanctioned vessel in Arabian Sea amid Iran enforcement operations
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
55m US intercepts sanctioned vessel in Arabian Sea amid Iran enforcement operations
▼ Strait of hormuz traffic
73% (was 75%, ▼2¢ in 55m)
NO ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
Developing
73%
▼2¢
55m 4h Iran intensifies efforts to keep Strait of Hormuz shut amid US blockade
YES ▲2¢
Kash patel out by date
1 article
Developing
14%
▲2¢
1h FBI Director Kash Patel likely to be fired, White House official claims
NO ▲1¢
Peru presidential election first round - 4th place
1 article
Developing
2%
▼1¢
39m Bomb attack in Colombia kills 14 ahead of presidential election
NO ▲1¢
Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
14%
▼1¢
✓ 21h Israel and Lebanon hold US-hosted talks amid Hezbollah tensions
NO ▲1¢
Trump out as president by april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
68%
▼1¢
2h Trump returns to White House, announces imminent press conference
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 1% FLAT
✓ 23h Trump halts US-Iran peace talks, April 30 deal market plummets
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 4% FLAT
3h Iran proposes talks framework with US, highlights deep trust issues
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 5h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 6% FLAT
✓ 35h Iran offers new negotiation proposal after US trip cancellation
✓ 37h Trump urges journalist to leave Pakistan as Iran peace talks stall
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
2 articles
· 5h ago
1%
▼1¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 2% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 1% FLAT
✓ 35h Baker Hughes warns Strait of Hormuz could remain closed through 2026
6h Iran tensions and oil supply issues fail to boost WTI crude price outlook
NO ▲1¢
Crude oil all time high by april 30
1 article
· 5h ago
1%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price hit in april 1% FLAT
5h Iran crisis leaves crude oil markets unmoved despite Strait of Hormuz tensions
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location 11% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 4% FLAT
✓ 26h Iran rules out US meetings in Pakistan or Oman, dampening diplomatic hopes
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location 11% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 11% FLAT
✓ 26h Iran pledges trust-building in Oman visit amid nuclear deal uncertainty
NO ▲1¢
Fed decisions from january to april
1 article
· 7h ago
39%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts in 2026 39% FLAT
7h Consumer pessimism on job security doubles, Fed rate cut speculation rises
Likely NO
Countries sending warships through hormuz
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Warships through the strait of hormuz 1% FLAT
⚡ Warships through the strait of hormuz 1% FLAT
10m Iran mining in Strait of Hormuz renews UK warship deployment speculation
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Iran regime fall 0% FLAT
✓ 238m US cancels Iran peace talks, protests erupt in Tel Aviv
3h Iran ramps up executions as regime maintains control amid protests
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april 6% FLAT
43m Iran refuses talks under pressure, reinforcing uranium enrichment deadlock
✓ 56h Iran refuses talks with Pakistan amid US blockade standoff
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
1h Netanyahu orders IDF to intensify attacks on Hezbollah, ceasefire in doubt
6h Israel strikes Hezbollah targets, straining fragile ceasefire in Lebanon
✓ 26h Israel urges US to pressure Lebanon over Hezbollah to save ceasefire
Likely NO
Trump insult prediction market
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Trump criticizes NATO’s role in Iran conflict, questions US alliance commitment
Likely NO
Starmer out prediction markets
1 article
Developing
47%
▼0¢
⚡ Starmer out timing predictions 46% FLAT
1h Starmer faces mounting pressure as Labour MPs speculate on leadership
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entering Iran
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
1h Israeli military raids West Bank amid escalating settler violence
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
✓ 31h Trump vows to win war against Iran, impacting market odds
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 3% FLAT
1h Trump claims US operations prevented Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 25
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h BIS warns crypto exchanges acting as “shadow banks,” raising systemic risk concerns
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026 5% FLAT
2h Karaganov’s remarks complicate Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prospects by 2026
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
2 articles
· 3h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
✓ 23h Bitcoin sharks accumulate 37,920 BTC as Middle East tensions ease
7h Bitcoin long-term holders stop panic selling, market stabilizes
Likely YES
Bitcoin price hit in april
1 article
Developing
1%
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
2m Iran conflict drives pistachio prices to 8-year high amid Hormuz blockade
Likely NO
Russia's entry into dovha balka
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against countries 100% FLAT
3h Iran-linked hackers expose Israeli special ops officers’ identities
Likely NO
Crypto hack predictions for 2023
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 26 0% FLAT
4h Balancer attacker converts $48.7M ETH to 617 BTC, retains 1k ETH
Likely NO
Trump's end of military operations against Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
▼0¢
✓ 404h Trump evacuated from White House dinner amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Netanyahu's tenure
1 article
· 5h ago
6%
▼0¢
5h Israel strikes in Gaza increase pressure on Netanyahu amid political turmoil
Likely NO
Putin's presidency status
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
5h Putin approval hits wartime low, market sees no immediate threat to power
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on april 16, 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ S&P 500 movement on april 24 100% FLAT
5h Hedge funds dump tech stocks at fastest pace in two years amid market jitters
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for 2026
2 articles
· 5h ago
5%
▼0¢
✓ 25h Bitcoin reclaims $73,700 support, eyes $96,000 mean reversion target
6h US Admiral Paparo endorses Bitcoin for national security strategy
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
✓ 35h IDF strikes Al-Khaiam amid ongoing clashes with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
Likely NO
Ethereum price in 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
4%
▼0¢
5h Kelp DAO exploit leaves AAVE with $196M bad debt, Ethereum market steady
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO
2 articles
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US NATO withdrawal 0% FLAT
6h Leaked Pentagon memo suggests punitive measures against NATO allies escalate tensions
7h Trump’s frustration with Europe reignites US withdrawal from NATO debate
Likely NO
Military action against Iran
1 article
· 6h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Countries conducting military action against Iran by april 30 1% FLAT
6h US embassy warns of arsons targeting UK Jewish sites linked to Iran group
Likely NO
Third best AI model by april 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
97%
▼0¢
6h Anthropic’s Mythos AI model sparks crypto security concerns
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit april
1 article
· 7h ago
1%
▼0¢
7h US naval forces intercept sanctioned vessel in Arabian Sea, enforcing blockade
Likely NO
Trump Iran demands (april)
1 article
· 7h ago
1%
▼0¢
7h Iran’s low-pressure oil fields risk permanent loss amid supply strain