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Prediction Markets

News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.

Arkham2h

BlackRock buys $900M in Bitcoin, boosting April 2026 $80K odds

▼ Bitcoin price targets
65% (was 70%, ▼5¢ in 2h)
NO ▲4¢ US-Iran permanent peace deal 1 article · 11h ago
11% ▼4¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium 26% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 43% FLAT
N▲4
Trump Truth Social DirectCNBC✓ 211h
Trump halts Iran strikes, cites internal fractures in Iranian government
NO ▲2¢ US-Iran ceasefire announcement 1 article · 11h ago
81% ▼2¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 82% FLAT
N▲2
FinancialjuiceTenet_researchStockMKTNewzBBCBreakingFoxNewsUnusual_whalesSecScottBessentMarioNawfal✓ 811h
Trump extends Iran blockade as ceasefire breach deadline looms
YES ▲1¢ Trump's Iranian demands 1 article · 11h ago
5% ▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 3% FLAT
Y▲1
Jerusalem Post11h
US Treasury imposes new sanctions on Iran weapon suppliers
YES ▲1¢ Trump insult prediction market 1 article · 11h ago
68% ▲1¢
Y▲1
FT11h
Mandelson scandal threatens Starmer’s leadership as pressure mounts
YES ▲1¢ S&P 500 movement on april 13 1 article · 11h ago
82% ▲1¢
Y▲1
Walter Bloomberg11h
US Treasury yields rise as US-Iran tensions escalate
Likely NO US-Iran ceasefire 22 articles Developing
9% ▼0¢
N↑
MarioNawfal53m
Iran ready to negotiate if US lifts naval blockade, market odds drop
Y↑
AJEnglishMarioNawfalIranIntl_En✓ 31h
Iran open to talks if US lifts blockade, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely
N↑
Ynetnews1h
Iran rejects ceasefire extension, US blames Mojtaba Khamenei
Likely NO Epstein client list release 1 article · 11h ago
18% ▼0¢
Y↑
Fox News (sitemap)The Hill✓ 211h
Democracy Forward’s FOIA request heightens scrutiny on Kash Patel
Likely NO Gold price predictions by end of june 1 article · 11h ago
100% ▼0¢
N↑
FirstSquawk11h
Spot gold drops 3% amid Iran conflict and US dollar strength
Likely NO Trump public insults by april 2026 1 article · 11h ago
100% ▼0¢
⚡ Who will Trump publicly insult by april 30? 100% FLAT
Y↑
MarioNawfal11h
Tucker Carlson apologizes for Trump support, market expects Trump insult
Likely NO Israel military action against Iran 1 article · 11h ago
100% ▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against countries 100% FLAT
Y↑
MarioNawfal11h
IRGC showcases missiles in Tehran amid low odds of Israeli military action