President Herzog has no plans to pardon Netanyahu, instead pushing for a plea deal. The odds of Netanyahu leaving office by June 30 sit at 5.5% YES, down from 6% a day ago.

Market reaction

Herzog’s stance is reflected in the Netanyahu’s departure market, with June 30 odds at 5.5% YES and the April 30 market holding at 0.1% YES. The June 30 sub-market shows traders pricing any resolution, like a plea deal, as a later event. The 5-point jump from April to June in the term structure suggests traders expect a possible decision point by mid-year.

Why it matters

Herzog’s refusal to pardon Netanyahu and his focus on a plea deal increases legal pressure on the Prime Minister. This reporting, sourced from a Tier 1 outlet, fits with earlier reports of mounting legal difficulties for Netanyahu. At 5.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu leaves by June 30, a 18x return. That bet requires believing a plea deal resolves within 67 days.

What to watch

Trading volume is at $1,762 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with $9,495 needed to move the June 30 market by five points. Thin liquidity means big moves require big trades; the largest recent shift was a 1-point drop. The April 30 market is nearly flat, with traders seeing almost no chance of a rapid outcome. Any formal plea agreement announcement or further mediation by Herzog could move these numbers quickly.

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