Pro-government protests in Iran challenge US ceasefire, negotiations continue

Pro-government groups in Iran protested against the ceasefire with the United States and planned negotiations, demanding continued confrontation. The ceasefire by April 15 sits at 100% YES.

The protests could signal cracks in peace efforts, but markets haven’t moved. Odds for April 15 and other dates through December 31 hold at 100% YES. The market prices in a durable ceasefire regardless of internal opposition. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market has ticked up to 11.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

The ceasefire market trades $4.2M/day in face value, with $3.2M in real USDC. These pro-government protests haven’t moved the odds. Traders appear to treat them as an expected reaction rather than a threat to the agreement. The regime fall market is much thinner: $36K in actual USDC, and $22K is enough to move the odds 5 points. A single large order could swing it.

The protests show hardliner resistance but haven’t changed ceasefire expectations. For the ceasefire market, breakdown risk before April 15 looks minimal. With shares priced at 100¢, there’s no room for profit unless a shock event occurs. For the regime fall market, a YES share at 12¢ pays $1 if the regime collapses by June 30, a 8.33x return for those betting on instability.

Watch for the April 10 negotiations in Islamabad. If US or Iranian officials soften their rhetoric, or if mediators like Oman or Qatar become more active, that could reinforce ceasefire stability. New military escalations or cancelled talks might finally shake the market.

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