Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition is leading exit polls with 37-39% of the vote. The market for Radev becoming the next Prime Minister sits at 94.8% YES, up from 76% a week ago.

Market reaction

Exit polls show Radev’s coalition with a roughly 22-point lead over GERB–SDS, which trails at 15%. This has pushed odds for Radev as next prime minister to 94.8%. Radev still needs coalition partners to form a government. The sub-market trades $24,076 in daily USDC volume. It takes $3,810 to move the market 5 points, suggesting moderate liquidity. The largest single move was a 4-point drop yesterday.

Why it matters

A Radev premiership would shift Bulgaria’s geopolitical orientation toward pro-Russian policies. This could affect EU and NATO dynamics if Bulgaria adopts a more Eurosceptic position and opposes Ukraine aid. For a YES share priced at 94.8¢, the payout is $1 if Radev secures the premiership, a 1.1x return. The remaining risk is whether coalition talks succeed and whether Radev can form a stable government.

What to watch

Coalition announcements and Radev’s official nomination are the next catalysts. Swearing-in by President Iliana Iotova would confirm the market’s pricing. Delyan Peevski’s role and GERB-SDS’s response will matter most in the coming days.

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