Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria won the April 19 election with 45% of the vote and a parliamentary majority. The odds of Radev becoming the next Prime Minister are at 96.4% YES, down slightly from 98% yesterday.

The Radev Prime Minister market has climbed from 91% a week ago to its current level, with the minor dip from yesterday’s 98% the only pullback. The election gives Radev a clear mandate, though coalition partners may moderate his foreign policy. The order book shows $21,691 needed to move the price 5 points, which points to a liquid, stable market.

Volume hit $19,025 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The largest price movement in that period was a 1.6-point dip, more consistent with short-term profit-taking than any change in the underlying outlook.

Radev’s win raises questions about Bulgaria’s EU alignment, particularly regarding Russia. But because he will need pro-European coalition partners, sharp policy shifts are unlikely. At 4¢, a YES share pays $1 if he becomes Prime Minister, a 25x return.

Watch for formal coalition announcements or internal party disputes that could complicate Radev’s path to nomination. Without those, his route to the premiership looks straightforward.

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