A Wall Street analyst just looked at SpaceX and essentially said: “This company should be worth more than the entire GDP of Japan.” Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price target, implying a market capitalization of roughly $10.5 trillion.

The current Street-high target represents a potential 425-450% upside from SpaceX’s recent trading levels around $145 per share.

The numbers behind the moonshot thesis

Gesuale’s model projects SpaceX generating over $837 billion in revenue by 2031, with $696 billion in EBITDA. The analyst used a 27x exit multiple on discounted cash flows from 2031 to arrive at the $800 figure, anchoring the thesis to what he estimates is a total addressable market approaching $30 trillion in the long term.

SpaceX debuted on public markets via the SPCX ticker in mid-June 2026. Shares initially surged more than 40%, pushing the company’s market cap to approximately $2.5 trillion before the inevitable profit-taking set in. The stock has since pulled back to a 52-week low range of $138-$145.

The bull case rests on SpaceX’s positioning as what Gesuale calls a crucial industrial infrastructure player of the 21st century. Between Starlink’s satellite internet constellation, the company’s dominant launch services business, and the upcoming Starship launch planned for July 16, 2026, there’s no shortage of catalysts on the calendar.

The Bitcoin treasury angle crypto investors should watch

Buried in the analyst note is a detail that bridges the gap between traditional aerospace investing and digital asset markets: SpaceX holds a confirmed 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet. That figure exceeds earlier estimates from prior blockchain tracking services, suggesting SpaceX has been quietly accumulating Bitcoin beyond what public trackers had identified.

SpaceX’s recent acquisition of xAI, the artificial intelligence company Musk founded in 2023, adds another dimension. The deal, completed in early 2026, combined with ongoing compute collaborations with Tesla, positions SpaceX at the intersection of space infrastructure, AI, and potentially decentralized compute networks.

What this means for investors on both sides of the aisle

For crypto investors, SpaceX’s 18,712 BTC treasury means that every institutional dollar flowing into SPCX shares is, in a fractional sense, also a bet on Bitcoin. If Gesuale’s thesis attracts even a portion of the capital it implies, the downstream effects on BTC demand through corporate treasury expansion could be material.

If SpaceX’s valuation compresses, management might face pressure to liquidate Bitcoin holdings to shore up the balance sheet. That scenario would create selling pressure in crypto markets at precisely the wrong moment.

The Starship launch on July 16 will be the first real test of whether SpaceX can deliver on the kind of operational milestones that justify even a fraction of Gesuale’s projections.