Monday opened with a jolt of optimism across every risk asset class.

Ceasefire whispers and diplomatic signals have traders feeling brave again.

Bitcoin is knocking on $70K while ETH quietly crossed $2,150.

But on-chain data is flashing caution signs beneath the surface.

Today's newsletter covers the rally, the risks, and the institutions ignoring both.

Strategy resumes Bitcoin buying spree, adding 4,871 BTC for $330M

Strategy's total Bitcoin stash now sits at roughly 767,000 BTC, worth about $53B.

The latest purchase came despite unrealized losses piling up in Q1.

Saylor's conviction trade is now larger than the GDP of most small nations.

Get the full story →

Markets

Ceasefire whispers lift risk assets, but prediction markets aren't buying it

Reports of a 45-day US-Iran ceasefire proposal sent equities and crypto surging Monday.

Prediction markets tell a different story: odds of a deal by April 30 sit at just 17.5%.

Traders have seen these diplomatic headlines before, and bets suggest they expect May for any real catalyst.

BTC climbed near $70K, ETH pushed past $2,150, SOL rose to $82, and XRP touched $1.35.

Keep reading →

Block launches Bitcoin Day, giving away $1M in BTC through Cash App and Square

Jack Dorsey's Block is handing out $1M in Bitcoin to US users this week.

Cash App, Square, and Bitkey are all participating from April 6 through 10.

The campaign nudges users toward buying, spending, and self-custodying BTC.

Read the full breakdown →

Bitmine now holds nearly 4% of all ETH, locks in NYSE uplisting

Bitmine has staked over 3.3 million ETH, worth roughly $7.1B at current prices.

The company earned an uplisting to the NYSE, effective April 9.

That is a serious vote of confidence in Ethereum's staking economy from traditional markets.

Read the full breakdown →

Bitcoin profit-taking ratio hits 3x, signaling a potential pullback

Profitable Bitcoin transactions now outnumber losing ones by nearly three to one.

Analytics firm Santiment flagged the ratio as a classic warning of incoming selling pressure.

When everyone is in profit, history says someone starts heading for the exit.

Read the full breakdown →

On Our Radar

Liquidity gets weird: Crypto exchanges are ditching traditional AMMs for hybrid models.*

The Twitter founder's messaging app: Jack Dorsey's Bitchat gets booted from China.

Blade Runner Energy: AI exec learns the hard way that crypto wealth isn't invisible.

_*sponsored

ICYMI

Meme of the Day

That’s your briefing. Catch you next time.

Estéfano