Roberto Sánchez overtakes Rafael López Aliaga in Peru vote count tally

Roberto Sánchez has moved into second place in the ONPE vote count with 89% of votes tallied, pushing Rafael López Aliaga to third. López Aliaga’s odds of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 18% YES on Polymarket, down from 26% just 24 hours ago.

Sánchez’s rise means López Aliaga may not finish in the top two, which he needs to qualify for the June 7 runoff. The López Aliaga victory market has repriced accordingly. With 53 days until the runoff, traders are adjusting positions to account for Sánchez’s climb in the count.

López Aliaga’s odds fell 8 points in under 24 hours on $226,952 in USDC volume. It takes $3,281 to move the odds 5 points, which is moderate liquidity — enough for news like this to cause rapid swings. The largest single move was a 4-point spike at 1:50 AM, consistent with active trading as the vote count results spread.

For traders, Sánchez’s rise reflects real fragmentation and voter volatility in Peru, not statistical noise. A YES share on López Aliaga at 18¢ pays $1 if he wins, a 5.56x return. But that bet requires believing in a dramatic reversal in the remaining vote count over the next few weeks.

Watch for further ONPE updates as the count approaches 100%, and any legal challenges López Aliaga may file over the tallying process. Either could move the market sharply.

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