As Bulgaria’s parliamentary elections approach, former President Rumen Radev leads polls with 30-33% support. The odds of him becoming the next Prime Minister are at 88.1% YES, up from 74% a week ago.
Traders are betting heavily on Radev’s victory, with odds solidly in his favor three days before the election. Radev has positioned himself as a pro-Russian candidate, and the market reflects expectations that his appeal to voters seeking improved relations with Moscow will secure him the top job.
Daily volume sits at $4,250 in USDC, and it takes $6,170 to move the price by five points, which makes this a relatively thick market. The largest move was a 9-point drop at 10:05 AM, but the price quickly rebounded.
Buying YES at 88.1¢ offers a 1.10x return if Radev becomes Prime Minister. Traders appear to believe Radev will navigate coalition talks successfully. A coalition with GERB-SDS or continued strong polling data could push the price higher still.
Watch for post-election coalition negotiations and announcements from Boyko Borisov or Iliana Iotova. Their decisions on coalition alignment could move the market sharply.
